manu354 · Polymarket wallet 0x61c4…fa64

Wallet snapshot

manu354 has made 63 trades on Polymarket across 20 markets, $1,864 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (26%) and politics (21%). On 10 resolved markets the win rate is 60%, lifetime P&L +$44. It holds 9 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?". Last trade: Nov 5, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?No · $192 · 26¢ → 50¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?No · $123 · 37¢ → 46¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by November 30, 2026?Yes · $107 · 30¢ → 32¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026?Yes · $101 · 87¢ → 88¢
• Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No · $99 · 34¢ → 34¢
• US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Yes · $88 · 17¢ → 15¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No · $78 · 57¢ → 45¢
• Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on November 5?No · $6 · 2¢ → 0¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes · $1 · 24¢ → 22¢

Latest closed positions

• Will James Graf win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?No · +$15 · Nov 4, 2026
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No · +$33 · Sep 1, 2026
• Insurrection Act invoked by July 31?No · +$9 · Aug 1, 2026
• Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?Yes · -$0 · Aug 1, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No · +$43 · Jul 21, 2026
• Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Yes · +$19 · Jul 8, 2026
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.