Marleaf · Polymarket wallet 0x5bf0…e5ce

Wallet snapshot

Marleaf has made 1,221 trades on Polymarket across 76 markets, $101K in volume. Most of it is in crypto (34%) and sports (24%). On 71 resolved markets the win rate is 83.1%, lifetime P&L +$231. It holds 4 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Iran leadership change by December 31?". Last trade: Oct 27, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Iran leadership change by December 31?No · $21 · 71¢ → 86¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $19 · 86¢ → 95¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes · $13 · 64¢ → 40¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes · $11 · 85¢ → 100¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No · -$2 · Oct 27, 2026
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes · +$10 · Sep 30, 2026
• Iran leadership change by September 30?No · +$4 · Sep 16, 2026
• Iran leadership change by August 31?No · +$2 · Sep 1, 2026
• Iran leadership change by July 31?No · +$0 · Aug 1, 2026
• Iran leadership change by June 30?No · +$5 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No · +$6 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?No · +$14 · Jun 2, 2026
• Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes · +$66 · May 31, 2026
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?No · +$2 · May 14, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.