Polymarket wallet 0x5244…4690

Wallet snapshot

Wallet 0x5244…4690 has made 233 trades on Polymarket across 132 markets, $431 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (14%) and economics (12%). On 121 resolved markets the win rate is 57%, lifetime P&L +$6. It holds 3 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?". Last trade: Nov 4, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?No · $2 · 30¢ → 45¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Yes · $1 · 78¢ → 91¢
• Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?Yes · $0 · 56¢ → 24¢

Latest closed positions

• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?No · +$3 · Nov 3, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No · -$1 · Nov 2, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?No · +$0 · Nov 2, 2026
• Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?No · +$0 · Nov 2, 2026
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?Yes · +$1 · Oct 31, 2026
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?Yes · +$0 · Oct 30, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?No · +$1 · Oct 24, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?Yes · -$1 · Oct 24, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?No · +$1 · Oct 22, 2026
• Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 68000?Yes · -$1 · Oct 21, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.