Lucky-38 · Polymarket wallet 0x502d…9cd5

Wallet snapshot

Lucky-38 has made 1,368 trades on Polymarket across 88 markets, $27K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (82%) and sports (10%). On 78 resolved markets the win rate is 64.1%. It holds 2 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?". Last trade: Aug 17, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes · $1 · 14¢ → 2¢
• Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?Yes · $1 · 46¢ → 5¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No · +$0 · Aug 17, 2026
• Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No · +$1 · Aug 8, 2026
• Will Russia target Kyiv by August 7, 2026?Yes · +$12 · Aug 4, 2026
• Will Russia target Kyiv by August 31, 2026?Yes · +$1 · Jul 30, 2026
• Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?No · -$2 · Apr 17, 2026
• Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?No · +$32 · Apr 17, 2026
• Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?No · +$13 · Apr 9, 2026
• Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?No · -$799 · Apr 7, 2026
• Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?No · +$6 · Apr 7, 2026
• Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No · +$37 · Apr 6, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.