Published methodology vs opaque algorithms
Polywhaler documents what goes into its scores. Smart Money, per their own docs, is "a 0 to 100 ranking that blends win rate, position sizing, and timing". What they do not publish is how those pieces combine, so you cannot take a wallet and recompute the number yourself. That gap shows up in the numbers. Take Candela, ranked #3 on their leaderboard. Polywhaler reports +$621,315 in realized P&L. Polymarket's own API reports +$4,047 of lifetime profit for that same wallet, by their own labels, and that is the number we show, linked to the source. Polymarket's own record for the wallet also lists its biggest single win at $379. Reaching $621K from wins that size would take roughly 1,600 of them in a row, with no losses.
Every wallet page on OrcaLayer links straight to the same wallet on Polymarket, so you can check our number against the source in one click. Where we compute a number ourselves, the method is published: Farmer Filter, NegRisk halving, FIFO win rate. OrcaLayer publishes every metric end-to-end. Farmer Filter logic is in /blog/why-99-percent-win-rate-is-a-trap. NegRisk halving is documented in /docs/api. Win rate calculation is FIFO with side-level cost basis. Our numbers stay within 0.7% of PredictFolio, the niche's cross-validation reference. If you find a number you disagree with, you can read the math, point at the line, and tell us we're wrong.