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The Clean Data Layer

Weekly whale digest: top movers, smart-money flow, new whales.

OrcaLayer is a Business Intelligence tool that leverages public blockchain data to provide insights into prediction market traders' performance. The information provided is not, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice. We are not a bookmaker and do not accept bets.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. All data is read from the public Polygon blockchain.

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OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? — Polymarket market icon
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
TECH97d left
43%
62yes83no
16¢
97d left
$275K
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
TECH96d left
64%
142yes79no
74¢
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$173K
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? — Polymarket market icon
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
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42%
21yes29no
25¢
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$123K
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
45%
20yes24no
32¢
97d left
$115K
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
54%
67yes58no
89¢
35d left
$81K
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
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39%
21yes33no
14¢
97d left
$81K
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
56%
31yes24no
35¢
97d left
$79K
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
51%
40yes39no
31¢
97d left
$79K
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
19%
5yes21no
19¢
97d left
$72K
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
40%
18yes27no
73¢
36d left
$55K
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
TECH97d left
53%
8yes7no
38¢
97d left
$55K
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
33%
8yes16no
46¢
97d left
$50K
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
TECH97d left
50%
12yes12no
78¢
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$48K
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
TECH462d left
49%
20yes21no
70¢
462d left
$48K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
61%
23yes15no
79¢
97d left
$47K
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
TECH36d left
34%
13yes25no
25¢
36d left
$46K
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
TECH97d left
64%
9yes5no
44¢
97d left
$44K
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
TECH97d left
50%
6yes6no
71¢
97d left
$41K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
TECH36d left
63%
22yes13no
77¢
36d left
$40K
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? — Polymarket market icon
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
TECH97d left
41%
9yes13no
16¢
97d left
$38K
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?
TECH462d left
33%
14yes28no
43¢
462d left
$37K
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?
TECH462d left
41%
21yes30no
55¢
462d left
$35K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
44%
14yes18no
28¢
97d left
$35K
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?
TECH36d left
58%
37yes27no
78¢
36d left
$34K
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
38%
12yes20no
19¢
97d left
$33K
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
TECH97d left
38%
5yes8no
12¢
97d left
$33K
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
TECH97d left
42%
8yes11no
25¢
97d left
$33K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
TECH97d left
35%
7yes13no
75¢
97d left
$31K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
43%
12yes16no
22¢
97d left
$28K
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
TECH97d left
63%
10yes6no
43¢
97d left
$26K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
50%
13yes13no
68¢
97d left
$26K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
TECH97d left
47%
8yes9no
64¢
97d left
$26K
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?
TECH462d left
30%
11yes26no
20¢
462d left
$24K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?
TECH20d left
50%
10yes10no
37¢
20d left
$23K
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
TECH828d left
17%
1yes5no
16¢
828d left
$20K
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
35%
13yes24no
86¢
36d left
$20K
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
TECH828d left
17%
1yes5no
17¢
828d left
$20K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
TECH96d left
33%
7yes14no
39¢
96d left
$19K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
43%
9yes12no
62¢
97d left
$17K
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
39%
12yes19no
81¢
35d left
$17K
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
TECH1193d left
33%
2yes4no
21¢
1193d left
$17K
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
TECH1193d left
100%
5yes0no
20¢
1193d left
$17K
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
45%
14yes17no
25¢
97d left
$16K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?
TECH22d left
30%
7yes16no
23¢
22d left
$15K
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?
TECH97d left
27%
3yes8no
32¢
97d left
$15K
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
15%
3yes17no
83¢
35d left
$14K
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? — Polymarket market icon
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
TECH36d left
43%
6yes8no
31¢
36d left
$14K
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
44%
8yes10no
83¢
36d left
$12K
Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? — Polymarket market icon
Moonshot matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
TECH36d left
27%
3yes8no
33¢
36d left
$12K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
TECH96d left
23%
6yes20no
12¢
96d left
$12K
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
28%
8yes21no
21¢
36d left
$12K
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
33%
9yes18no
82¢
35d left
$11K
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
33%
9yes18no
69¢
35d left
$11K
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? — Polymarket market icon
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?
TECH186d left
53%
9yes8no
42¢
186d left
$10K
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering? — Polymarket market icon
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?
TECH462d left
8%
2yes22no
20¢
462d left
$10K
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
11%
2yes17no
12¢
35d left
$10K
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
23%
6yes20no
31¢
35d left
$9K
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September? — Polymarket market icon
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?
TECH5d left
41%
12yes17no
74¢
5d left
$8K
Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?
TECH35d left
75%
15yes5no
22¢
35d left
$8K
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
10%
2yes19no
20¢
35d left
$7K
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? — Polymarket market icon
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
TECH36d left
56%
5yes4no
26¢
36d left
$7K
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?
TECH5d left
47%
7yes8no
83¢
5d left
$6K
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
25%
6yes18no
20¢
36d left
$6K
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September? — Polymarket market icon
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September?
TECH5d left
21%
3yes11no
20¢
5d left
$6K
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
11%
2yes16no
14¢
36d left
$6K
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
33%
2yes4no
41¢
97d left
$5K
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
24%
4yes13no
70¢
36d left
$5K
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
42%
5yes7no
62¢
66d left
$5K
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
43%
3yes4no
83¢
66d left
$5K
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
TECH96d left
71%
5yes2no
90¢
96d left
$4K
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?
TECH35d left
24%
6yes19no
13¢
35d left
$4K
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
29%
5yes12no
86¢
66d left
$3K
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
7%
1yes13no
41¢
66d left
$3K
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
21%
4yes15no
44¢
66d left
$3K
Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? — Polymarket market icon
Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
TECH36d left
50%
2yes2no
13¢
36d left
$3K
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?
TECH277d left
0%
0yes4no
14¢
277d left
$3K
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
TECH278d left
78%
7yes2no
74¢
278d left
$3K
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
25%
3yes9no
14¢
66d left
$3K
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?
TECH277d left
44%
7yes9no
40¢
277d left
$3K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?
TECH29d left
13%
2yes14no
14¢
29d left
$2K
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement by December 31, 2026?
TECH97d left
71%
5yes2no
14¢
97d left
$2K
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?
TECH5d left
63%
5yes3no
54¢
5d left
$2K
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
8%
1yes12no
16¢
66d left
$2K
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
43%
6yes8no
78¢
66d left
$2K
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
TECH36d left
23%
3yes10no
13¢
36d left
$2K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?
TECH15d left
31%
4yes9no
16¢
15d left
$2K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?
TECH28d left
50%
3yes3no
50¢
28d left
$2K
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?
TECH9d left
38%
3yes5no
69¢
9d left
$2K
Next Claude Opus released by December 31, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Next Claude Opus released by December 31, 2026?
TECH96d left
100%
3yes0no
88¢
96d left
$1K
Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? — Polymarket market icon
Baidu matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
TECH36d left
50%
1yes1no
28¢
36d left
$1K
Next Claude Opus released by November 30, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Next Claude Opus released by November 30, 2026?
TECH65d left
50%
2yes2no
68¢
65d left
$1K
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
17%
2yes10no
22¢
66d left
$1K
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?
TECH2d left
40%
4yes6no
69¢
2d left
$1K
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
33%
2yes4no
34¢
66d left
$1K
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?
TECH66d left
9%
1yes10no
15¢
66d left
$1K
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?
TECH2d left
43%
6yes8no
28¢
2d left
$1K
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?
TECH65d left
83%
5yes1no
88¢
65d left
$974
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026? — Polymarket market icon
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?
TECH9d left
33%
4yes8no
27¢
9d left
$914
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28? — Polymarket market icon
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 28?
TECH8d left
0%
0yes1no
11¢
8d left
$755
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? — Polymarket market icon
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?
TECH278d left
40%
2yes3no
60¢
278d left
$675
Showing 100 of 202 matching markets

Explore Polymarket markets by category

Every active Polymarket market, indexed from the Polygon chain and grouped by category: politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, economics and tech. Each market shows live volume and prices, and links to the wallets trading it, so a market view is always one click from the farmer-filtered leaderboard of who is actually positioned in it.

Questions and answers

What Polymarket markets does OrcaLayer track?

All of them — every active market is indexed from the chain within seconds, grouped by category (politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, economics, tech) with live volume and prices per market.

How do I explore Polymarket markets by category?

Use the category tabs on the markets page: politics, sports, crypto, geopolitics, economics and tech. Each category lists its active markets with volume and current prices, sortable and filterable.

How fresh is the data?

Trades stream from the Polygon chain with seconds of lag; prices refresh continuously. Nightly jobs rebuild the heavier aggregates.