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Economics

Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
44¢
44% implied
NO Price
56¢
56% implied
Volume
$11.6K
524 trades
Smart Whales
88
of 233 traders

October Unemployment Rate

9 MARKETS · $38.3K MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

71 YESvs17 NO
81%19%
81% of smart money holding this market is on YESNet of both-sides wallets: 75% YES by dollars · 70 YES vs 5 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 53%· net of hedges
+75 new YES$97+6 new NO$111
$9 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
41 smart whales1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.4K is directional: YES $1.1K·NO $352
YES Team
Total Invested
$1.1K
Avg Win Rate
59.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$119(+11.2%)
Whales
71
P
podairpod🥇
Entry 39¢·2,118.6 shares
+$105INV $816 · WR 59.2%
F
firegold🥈
Entry 42¢·359.5 shares
+$6INV $151 · WR 59.5%
N
new-account-test222🥉
Entry 41¢·45 shares
+$1INV $18 · WR 64.3%
B
big-bird1
Entry 41¢·32.8 shares
+$1INV $13 · WR 68.9%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 9¢·25 shares
+$9INV $2 · WR 79.7%
B
0xbe16b201...
Entry 45¢·2.3 shares
$-0INV $1 · WR 68.2%
4
0x4d90defd...
Entry 45¢·2.3 shares
$-0INV $1 · WR 57.7%
8
0x8d93fc72...
Entry 45¢·2.3 shares
$-0INV $1 · WR 58.4%
8
0x8ff49d3d...
Entry 45¢·2.3 shares
$-0INV $1 · WR 58.3%
9
0x91b3441d...
Entry 45¢·2.3 shares
$-0INV $1 · WR 58.8%
Showing top 10 of 71

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 77% YES: the October 2026 unemployment rate…