Resolved
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in October 2025 (LS)?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$49.6K
595 trades
Smart Whales
47
of 144 traders
October 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC) (Lower strikes)
7 MARKETS · $51.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
19 YESvs28 NO
40%60%
60% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 0% YES by dollars · 0 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.1K is directional: YES $0·NO $1.1KYES Team
Total Invested
$9.3K
Avg Win Rate
62.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$8.2K(+88.8%)
Whales
19
M
Marketpoll🥇
Entry 70¢·10,782.2 shares
Invested
$7.6K
Win Rate
61.2%
Position P&L
+$3226
+$3226INV $7.6K · WR 61.2%
P
PmFans🥈
Entry 100¢·500 shares
Invested
$500
Win Rate
79.3%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $500 · WR 79.3%
A
AdvantagePlayer🥉
Entry 55¢·596 shares
Invested
$327
Win Rate
57.4%
Position P&L
+$269
+$269INV $327 · WR 57.4%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBillyhedged
Entry 90¢·313.5 shares·also $12 on NO
Invested
$283
Win Rate
57.7%
Position P&L
+$30
+$30INV $283 · WR 57.7%
P
pippero◆Proven
Entry 54¢·349.8 shares
Invested
$191
Win Rate
57.2%
Position P&L
+$159
+$159INV $191 · WR 57.2%
M
MKB
Entry 89¢·165.6 shares
Invested
$148
Win Rate
69.3%
Position P&L
+$18
+$18INV $148 · WR 69.3%
B
Big.Chungushedged
Entry 19¢·544.1 shares·also $477 on NO
Invested
$105
Win Rate
68.0%
Position P&L
+$439
+$439INV $105 · WR 68.0%
R
Rr55◆Proven
Entry 8¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$80
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$920
+$920INV $80 · WR 73.2%
A
AB2hedged
Entry 1¢·3,035.6 shares·also $2.5K on NO
Invested
$42
Win Rate
72.9%
Position P&L
+$2993
+$2993INV $42 · WR 72.9%
D
Drunken-Mentat
Entry 6¢·184.9 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
+$173
+$173INV $12 · WR 75.4%
Showing top 10 of 19
NO Team
Total Invested
$7.1K
Avg Win Rate
69.9%
Aggregate P&L
-$6.6K(-93.2%)
Whales
28
A
AB2🥇hedged
Entry 100¢·2,523.8 shares·also $42 on YES
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
72.9%
Position P&L
$-2529
$-2529INV $2.5K · WR 72.9%
O
Oompa-Loompa◆Proven🥈
Entry 69¢·2,509.8 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
69.8%
Position P&L
$-1723
$-1723INV $1.7K · WR 69.8%
K
Kapii◆Proven🥉
Entry 25¢·4,300 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
57.9%
Position P&L
$-1078
$-1078INV $1.1K · WR 57.9%
B
Big.Chungushedged
Entry 88¢·544.1 shares·also $105 on YES
Invested
$477
Win Rate
68.0%
Position P&L
$-477
$-477INV $477 · WR 68.0%
B
balerinacapuchina
Entry 86¢·320.1 shares
Invested
$275
Win Rate
70.5%
Position P&L
$-275
$-275INV $275 · WR 70.5%
R
r4fdhvj4nv
Entry 8¢·2,000 shares
Invested
$160
Win Rate
77.5%
Position P&L
$-160
$-160INV $160 · WR 77.5%
I
influenz.eth
Entry 5¢·1,721.4 shares
Invested
$85
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-85
$-85INV $85 · WR 85.8%
R
rated
Entry 10¢·574.8 shares
Invested
$56
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-56
$-56INV $56 · WR 87.7%
N
Novus0rdoSeclorum
Entry 10¢·498 shares
Invested
$48
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
$-48
$-48INV $48 · WR 83.8%
U
untaken◆Proven
Entry 21¢·215 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
91.3%
Position P&L
$-46
$-46INV $46 · WR 91.3%
Showing top 10 of 28
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