Economics87 days left

Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

10¢

10% implied

NO Price

90¢

90% implied

Volume

$2.0K

91 trades

Smart Whales

of 63 traders

ECB Interest Rates: February 2027

7 MARKETS · $18.1K MATCHED

Smart Money

by 50+ bps at the February meeting

2¢+6¢$2.5K1/11

by 50+ bps at the February meeting+6¢2¢

$2.5K1/11

by 25 bps at the February meeting

1¢+11¢$2.9K2/15

by 25 bps at the February meeting+11¢1¢

$2.9K2/15

Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting

88¢−53¢$5.3K6/11

Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting−53¢88¢

$5.3K6/11

by 25 bps at the February meeting←

10¢+3¢$2.0K2/14

by 25 bps at the February meeting←+3¢10¢

$2.0K2/14

by 50+ bps at the February meeting

1¢+12¢$2.1K2/13

by 50+ bps at the February meeting+12¢1¢

$2.1K2/13

by 25 bps at the March meeting

42¢−42¢$2.9K0/4

by 25 bps at the March meeting−42¢42¢

$2.9K0/4

by 50+ bps at the March meeting

3¢−3¢$4390/7

by 50+ bps at the March meeting−3¢3¢

$4390/7

Hover a row for the full Polymarket title

Smart Money Consensus

2 YESvs14 NO

13%88%

88% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 77% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 1 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 88%· net of hedges

+11 new YES$107+17 new NO$638

$44 of this was bought on both sides by the same 4 buyers — left out of momentum

2 smart whales9 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $139 is directional: YES $107·NO $32

YES Team

Total Invested

$107

Avg Win Rate

59.4%

Aggregate P&L

-$17(-15.6%)

Whales

exothetajunkie🥇

Entry 13¢·590.8 shares

$-17INV $76 · WR 59.5%

podairpod🥈

Entry 10¢·316.4 shares

+$0INV $32 · WR 59.2%

NO Team

Total Invested

$745

Avg Win Rate

80.9%

Aggregate P&L

+$104(+13.9%)

Whales

anothercoin🥇

Entry 89¢·134.2 shares

+$1INV $120 · WR 84.2%

+$3INV $106 · WR 75.9%

+$3INV $88 · WR 79.6%

Lucerys

Entry 50¢·159.4 shares

+$65INV $79 · WR 87.6%

alex20011

Entry 87¢·80.9 shares

+$3INV $70 · WR 74.8%

+$2INV $53 · WR 71.9%

+$0INV $36 · WR 82.7%

+$2INV $35 · WR 80.4%

+$1INV $35 · WR 86.1%

LesterDiamond

Entry 86¢·36.7 shares

+$1INV $32 · WR 87.4%

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