Economics47 days left

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

74¢

74% implied

NO Price

26¢

26% implied

Volume

$320.6K

4,224 trades

Smart Whales

64

of 499 traders · 1 on both sides

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

7 MARKETS · $1.07M MATCHED

Smart Money

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)

64¢−28¢$362.7K39/69

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)−28¢64¢

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)

24¢+8¢$251.4K20/43

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)+8¢24¢

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)

1¢+17¢$62.7K7/32

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)+17¢1¢

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)

0¢+25¢$43.3K10/30

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)+25¢0¢

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)

0¢+24¢$28.3K9/28

Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)+24¢0¢

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)←

74¢−44¢$320.6K20/46

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)←−44¢74¢

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)

9¢+24¢$3761/2

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)+24¢9¢

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Smart Money Consensus

18 YESvs47 NO

28%72%

72% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 47% YES by dollars · 14 YES vs 8 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowYES momentum 68%· net of hedges

+9 new YES$527+14 new NO$288

$148 of this was bought on both sides by the same 8 buyers — left out of momentum

2 smart whales2 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

$52 of $20.7K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $9.7K·NO $11.0K

YES Team

Total Invested

$10.3K

Avg Win Rate

63.9%

Aggregate P&L

+$3.0K(+29.2%)

Whales

18

Entry 63¢·7,829.9 shares

+$761INV $5.0K · WR 61.6%

soapbubbles🥈

Entry 49¢·6,036 shares

+$1434INV $3.0K · WR 63.2%

DancewithRisk🥉

Entry 51¢·1,792.5 shares

+$394INV $914 · WR 69.3%

Entry 64¢·998.2 shares

+$92INV $637 · WR 71.9%

heyhelloheyhedged

Entry 50¢·1,043.6 shares·also $440 on NO

+$250INV $517 · WR 69.3%

Dimpled-Selfesteem

Entry 50¢·115.8 shares

+$27INV $58 · WR 65.6%

Entry 55¢·104.7 shares·also $26 on NO

+$19INV $57 · WR 64.7%

Entry 53¢·80.6 shares

+$16INV $43 · WR 90.3%

Unaware-Adjustment

Entry 56¢·27.3 shares

+$5INV $15 · WR 58.3%

Entry 63¢·24.3 shares

+$2INV $15 · WR 57.9%

Showing top 10 of 18

NO Team

Total Invested

$21.1K

Avg Win Rate

73.6%

Aggregate P&L

-$8.1K(-38.6%)

Whales

47

Entry 48¢·7,076.2 shares

$-1461INV $3.4K · WR 77.4%

Entry 50¢·5,940.5 shares

$-1362INV $3.0K · WR 60.6%

laptop.recked🥉

Entry 49¢·5,898.2 shares

$-1345INV $2.9K · WR 85.9%

98Ddd05Cde45d05C4fC06f4093759FFDDFSFFSDDVF

Entry 35¢·6,349.9 shares

$-508INV $2.2K · WR 63.4%

Entry 45¢·3,845.3 shares

$-708INV $1.7K · WR 85.9%

Entry 35¢·3,295.1 shares

$-257INV $1.1K · WR 57.5%

Entry 53¢·2,000 shares

$-530INV $1.1K · WR 74.4%

Elias.Thornwell

Entry 53¢·1,216.6 shares

$-320INV $649 · WR 69.2%

Entry 60¢·946.3 shares

$-312INV $567 · WR 55.5%

Entry 49¢·1,092.4 shares

$-242INV $532 · WR 79.5%

Showing top 10 of 47

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 27% YES: the Fed decide differently in the next…