Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$21.0K
509 trades
Smart Whales
48
of 149 traders
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $22.6K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026←
0¢+15¢$21.0K7/41by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026←+15¢0¢
$21.0K7/41
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
29¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—29¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
7 YESvs41 NO
15%85%
85% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$1
Avg Win Rate
58.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$1(-90.9%)
Whales
7
S
Spotless-Investigator-Overcoat🥇
Entry 0¢·168 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
59.8%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 59.8%
C
Crypto-Well🥈
Entry 0¢·1,437.7 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
56.5%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 56.5%
C
Colossal-Bookcase-Saloon🥉hedged
Entry 0¢·100.1 shares·also $78 on NO
Invested
$0
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 59.7%
Showing top 3 of 7
NO Team
Total Invested
$11.4K
Avg Win Rate
78.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$572(+5.0%)
Whales
41
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 91¢·2,327 shares
Invested
$2.1K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$215
+$215INV $2.1K · WR 67.5%
M
melchior1248🥈
Entry 97¢·2,002.9 shares
Invested
$2.0K
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
+$51
+$51INV $2.0K · WR 69.2%
G
graynotebook19🥉
Entry 99¢·1,065 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $1.1K · WR 89.3%
I
influenz.eth
Entry 100¢·1,041.7 shares
Invested
$1.0K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $1.0K · WR 85.8%
E
e46m3
Entry 100¢·917.7 shares
Invested
$915
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $915 · WR 79.6%
D
donthackme
Entry 100¢·653.1 shares
Invested
$652
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $652 · WR 87.7%
I
i18z
Entry 96¢·583.9 shares
Invested
$560
Win Rate
87.1%
Position P&L
+$24
+$24INV $560 · WR 87.1%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 98¢·438 shares
Invested
$428
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $428 · WR 89.0%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 100¢·360 shares
Invested
$358
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $358 · WR 79.6%
M
Motionless-Feedback
Entry 100¢·350 shares
Invested
$349
Win Rate
86.9%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $349 · WR 86.9%
Showing top 10 of 41
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