Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$56.2K
1,204 trades
Smart Whales
62
of 263 traders
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $58.1K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026←
100¢−74¢$56.2K16/46by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026←−74¢100¢
$56.2K16/46
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
28¢−28¢$2440/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−28¢28¢
$2440/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
24¢—$1470/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—24¢
$1470/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
42¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—42¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
16 YESvs46 NO
26%74%
74% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$7.9K
Avg Win Rate
67.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$5.4K(+69.0%)
Whales
16
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 59¢·12,402.1 shares
Invested
$7.3K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$5143
+$5143INV $7.3K · WR 67.5%
R
Rr55◆Proven🥈
Entry 55¢·530 shares
Invested
$293
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$237
+$237INV $293 · WR 73.2%
A
artymarty🥉
Entry 93¢·96.1 shares
Invested
$89
Win Rate
62.9%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $89 · WR 62.9%
S
sparkybeme2
Entry 96¢·52 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
73.0%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $50 · WR 73.0%
N
NoTeacherhedged
Entry 74¢·60 shares·also $54 on NO
Invested
$44
Win Rate
56.1%
Position P&L
+$16
+$16INV $44 · WR 56.1%
5
5ttegrirmw7p
Entry 49¢·80.4 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
57.8%
Position P&L
+$41
+$41INV $40 · WR 57.8%
Showing top 6 of 16
NO Team
Total Invested
$6.9K
Avg Win Rate
84.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$6.6K(-96.4%)
Whales
46
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 49¢·6,779.9 shares
Invested
$3.3K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-3329
$-3329INV $3.3K · WR 85.8%
P
products🥈
Entry 47¢·1,982.8 shares
Invested
$924
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
$-924
$-924INV $924 · WR 86.6%
M
melchior1248🥉
Entry 28¢·1,628.8 shares
Invested
$449
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
$-449
$-449INV $449 · WR 69.2%
S
Scornful-Conductor
Entry 46¢·795.2 shares
Invested
$365
Win Rate
86.7%
Position P&L
$-365
$-365INV $365 · WR 86.7%
N
northdrawer
Entry 40¢·622 shares
Invested
$249
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-249
$-249INV $249 · WR 87.7%
R
rated
Entry 51¢·451.8 shares
Invested
$232
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-232
$-232INV $232 · WR 87.7%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 52¢·225 shares
Invested
$118
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-118
$-118INV $118 · WR 79.6%
H
hellokittyhellokitty
Entry 30¢·381.4 shares
Invested
$115
Win Rate
66.6%
Position P&L
$-115
$-115INV $115 · WR 66.6%
O
OmaJane
Entry 49¢·227.9 shares
Invested
$111
Win Rate
90.2%
Position P&L
$-111
$-111INV $111 · WR 90.2%
M
mymacbook◆Proven
Entry 51¢·201.1 shares
Invested
$103
Win Rate
80.1%
Position P&L
$-103
$-103INV $103 · WR 80.1%
Showing top 10 of 46
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 1219ms