Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?
YES Price
100¢
100% implied
NO Price
0¢
0% implied
Volume
$13.9K
2,380 trades
Smart Whales
71
of 1,376 traders
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $15.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026←
100¢−62¢$13.9K27/44by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026←−62¢100¢
$13.9K27/44
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
28¢−28¢$2440/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−28¢28¢
$2440/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
38¢—$1600/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—38¢
$1600/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
42¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—42¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
27 YESvs44 NO
38%62%
62% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$6.1K
Avg Win Rate
74.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.6K(+26.1%)
Whales
27
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 92¢·3,596.4 shares
Invested
$3.3K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$276
+$276INV $3.3K · WR 67.5%
D
DiamondHands11◆Proven🥈
Entry 100¢·1,322.7 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
89.1%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $1.3K · WR 89.1%
R
Rr55◆Proven🥉
Entry 45¢·1,400 shares
Invested
$625
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
+$775
+$775INV $625 · WR 73.2%
C
Claw-bro
Entry 94¢·251 shares
Invested
$236
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
+$15
+$15INV $236 · WR 87.9%
D
Drunken-Mentat
Entry 26¢·590.7 shares
Invested
$155
Win Rate
75.4%
Position P&L
+$436
+$436INV $155 · WR 75.4%
R
Roro22◆Proven
Entry 67¢·209.9 shares
Invested
$140
Win Rate
74.9%
Position P&L
+$70
+$70INV $140 · WR 74.9%
V
Varyaghedged
Entry 97¢·90.5 shares·also $52 on NO
Invested
$88
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $88 · WR 69.0%
B
Bikesarethebesthedged
Entry 68¢·71.5 shares·also $37 on NO
Invested
$49
Win Rate
56.3%
Position P&L
+$23
+$23INV $49 · WR 56.3%
Showing top 8 of 27
NO Team
Total Invested
$3.5K
Avg Win Rate
82.6%
Aggregate P&L
-$3.2K(-90.4%)
Whales
44
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 26¢·3,758.2 shares
Invested
$962
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-962
$-962INV $962 · WR 85.8%
M
MKB🥈
Entry 81¢·600 shares
Invested
$487
Win Rate
69.3%
Position P&L
$-487
$-487INV $487 · WR 69.3%
S
Scornful-Conductor🥉
Entry 58¢·653 shares
Invested
$378
Win Rate
86.7%
Position P&L
$-378
$-378INV $378 · WR 86.7%
R
rated
Entry 23¢·1,054 shares
Invested
$242
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-242
$-242INV $242 · WR 87.7%
P
products
Entry 56¢·397.4 shares
Invested
$222
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
$-222
$-222INV $222 · WR 86.6%
J
jennylulu2016
Entry 87¢·140 shares
Invested
$121
Win Rate
89.1%
Position P&L
$-121
$-121INV $121 · WR 89.1%
8
88mnm88
Entry 78¢·155 shares
Invested
$121
Win Rate
77.1%
Position P&L
$-121
$-121INV $121 · WR 77.1%
P
PollyForge
Entry 26¢·395.3 shares
Invested
$103
Win Rate
84.8%
Position P&L
$-103
$-103INV $103 · WR 84.8%
W
wokerjoesleeper
Entry 86¢·111 shares
Invested
$95
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-95
$-95INV $95 · WR 87.6%
L
LesterDiamond
Entry 48¢·165.9 shares
Invested
$80
Win Rate
88.1%
Position P&L
$-80
$-80INV $80 · WR 88.1%
Showing top 10 of 44
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