CS2Thunderpick World Championship · Playoffs · BO3View on Polymarket RESOLVED · Aurora Gaming

Aurora Gaming2-1Team Falcons

Thunderpick World Championship · Playoffs· Oct 18, 2026 · 11:30–15:00 UTC· 3h 30m· VOD on twitch

Volume

$3.1M

Trades

19,626

Significant

140 ≥ $1,853

Low · high

12¢ → 99.9¢

Price path · full matchYES = Aurora Gaming · 1-min VWAP · rings = 6 largest significant trades, one per wallet · tap a ringshaded beyond 5–95¢ = market priced as decided

smart consensus leaned AUR from G3 at 96¢ · 57% → 55%

MapWinnerDurationPrice · start → endMap volumeTradesSignificant

G1Team Falcons43¢ → 17¢$198.5K

G1Team Falcons45m 23s · 11:30–12:1543¢ → 17¢ −26¢$198.5K2,70140

G2Aurora Gaming17¢ → 45¢$453.8K

G2Aurora Gaming1h 40m · 12:15–13:5617¢ → 45¢ +28¢$453.8K7,96649

G3Aurora Gaming45¢ → 99.9¢—

G3Aurora Gaming1h 03m · 13:56–15:0045¢ → 99.9¢ +55¢———

Walls eatena resting order of $10K+ taken out in under 90 s · the maker is revealed by the fills that hit it · largest first9

WALL EATEN43¢ · $34.4K ask wall gone in 47s$12.2K eaten · $22.1K pulledseries

Maker revealed by fills:tyoprkgsmart+6 more on the same level· 82% of the wall was theirs

TAKERS· qiu3 $10.1K· shaw $1.6K· MeiGuNiuBi $461· +2 more· 10 fills

WALL EATEN94¢ · $24.9K bid wall gone instantly$14.0K eaten · $10.9K pulledseries

Maker revealed by fills:calculate10hedger+7 more on the same level· 88% of the wall was theirs

TAKERS· HMLSF $14.0K· 10 fills

WALL EATEN45¢ · $22.0K ask wall gone in 17s$12.2K eaten · $3.6K pulled · $6.2K still thereseries

Maker revealed by fills:WARNINGWARNINGWARNINGhedger· 100% of the wall was theirs

TAKERS· BrotherObama $12.2K· +1 more· 2 fills

WALL EATEN90¢ · $14.7K ask wall gone in 6s$8.3K eaten · $6.4K pulledseries

Maker revealed by fills:Toxic.Xismart· 100% of the wall was theirs

TAKERS· Woaifacai $8.3K· +7 more· 8 fills

WALL EATEN98¢ · $14.3K ask wall gone in 1s$4.9K eaten · $9.4K pulledseries

Maker revealed by fills:bobbydobby+3 more on the same level· 100% of the wall was theirs

TAKERS· Jubilant-Comeback $4.6K· Favorable-Pepper-Brushing $162· +1 more· 7 fills

WALL EATEN45¢ · $13.1K bid wall gone in 3s$4.0K eaten · $5.9K pulled · $3.2K still theremap 2

Maker revealed by fills:calculate10hedger+13 more on the same level· 68% of the wall was theirs

TAKERS· JohnLKellyJr $3.9K· +1 more· 18 fills

Who entered before the reversalAurora Gaming last traded ≤ 40¢ at G3 · 48:01 · size and avg entry = whole position on the winner · sorted by realized P&L41 wallets

#WalletAvg entrySize · enteredRealized P&LWin rate

1ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319whale+$13.5K

$8.7K at 28¢· G1 · 04:13· win rate 47.2%

1ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319whale28¢$8.7K G1 · 04:13+$13.5K47.2%

2mythos1.80x21b7…c861retail+$4.2K

$1.8K at 29¢· G1 · 04:37· win rate 35.4%

2mythos1.80x21b7…c861retail29¢$1.8K G1 · 04:37+$4.2K35.4%

3calculate100xb35f…cf4cretail+$3.6K

$34.2K at 79¢· G1 · 44:44· win rate 54.1%

3calculate100xb35f…cf4cretail79¢$34.2K G1 · 44:44+$3.6K54.1%

4protonos0x10c0…4b97retail+$1.7K

$266 at 17¢· G2 · 12:16· win rate 48.4%

4protonos0x10c0…4b97retail17¢$266 G2 · 12:16+$1.7K48.4%

5stormyascent0xd670…b24eretail+$1.3K

$846 at 39¢· pre-match · 8h 23m before· win rate 68.0%

5stormyascent0xd670…b24eretail39¢$846 pre-match · 8h 23m before+$1.3K68.0%

6austrianArjuna0x5c8c…077bretail+$822

$480 at 37¢· G2 · 41:19· win rate 42.1%

6austrianArjuna0x5c8c…077bretail37¢$480 G2 · 41:19+$82242.1%

7retot0x9473…cba4retail+$725

$2.5K at 67¢· G1 · 44:44· win rate 52.3%

7retot0x9473…cba4retail67¢$2.5K G1 · 44:44+$72552.3%

8Winged-Anywhere0x8813…47e6smart+$583

$333 at 16¢· G2 · 15:30· win rate 61.9%

8Winged-Anywhere0x8813…47e6smart16¢$333 G2 · 15:30+$58361.9%

9Autob10x52ca…2f11retail+$469

$807 at 45¢· G3 · 18:40· win rate 53.4%

9Autob10x52ca…2f11retail45¢$807 G3 · 18:40+$46953.4%

10Identical-Insectarium0xd1fe…e21fretail+$442

$223 at 34¢· G2 · 69:08· win rate 49.8%

10Identical-Insectarium0xd1fe…e21fretail34¢$223 G2 · 69:08+$44249.8%

Reversal = last time Aurora Gaming traded ≤ 40¢ (G3 · 48:01). Entered = the first fill at that price; size and average entry cover the whole position on the winner, from $100. Realized P&L at resolution · from on-chain fills · past performance does not guarantee future results

Match leadersrealized P&L · this market · 347 wallets

Top winners

ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319whale+$13.5K

ArturitoFilito0x336b…1233whale+$9.5K

Nooserac0xf68a…5b1bwhale+$5.2K

mythos1.80x21b7…c861retail+$4.2K

calculate100xb35f…cf4cretail+$3.6K

Top losers

NeverLoseBet0x3990…3401whale−$45.6K

dsasdaas0x1e52…eb43smartwhale−$21.6K

WARNINGWARNINGWARNING0x5e6e…be00whale−$8.8K

0xbb29…947aretail−$7.2K

yoyoyoyoer0xb7ff…aa79retail−$5.9K

mm / minter (sold more shares than bought — cost outside the book, no P&L shown): Favorable-Pepper-Brushing, suntori, El-Toque-De-Midas, RewardFarmilka +4

Smart consensus · at resolution198 wallets

55%YES Aurora Gaming · the winner· from 57% at match start

YES capital

$682.3K

NO capital

$881.3K

Hedged

$304.7K

Significant ordersFULL MATCH · 140 TRADES ≥ $1,853 · FLOOR $500 · LARGEST FIRST

TimeMarketSizeSidePriceWalletLabelsWin rateLifetime P&L

Kkunn0xe787…5034$27.4K

NO58¢series11:11:15whale