Pre-IPO & Private Company Markets

In May 2026 Polymarket launched Pre-IPO markets — prediction markets on the valuations and IPO timing of the world's most-watched private companies, settled against Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) data. For the first time, traders can take a position on what OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks, Anduril or Kraken will be worth — without owning a share. OrcaLayer surfaces which smart-money wallets are buying which side of those bets.

These markets are structured as valuation ladders: a single company carries multiple thresholds (e.g. OpenAI at $750B, $900B, $1T, $1.5T by a given date), plus head-to-head 'higher valuation' match-ups and outright IPO-timing markets. We aggregate every open Pre-IPO market and compute whale consensus from Smart Money wallets (55%+ win rate, positive P&L, 10+ resolved markets, farmers and bots excluded); positions on NegRisk multi-threshold events are halved to avoid double-counting the ladder.

Because the vertical is brand new, the edge is in being early — institutional and insider-adjacent capital tends to position before the broader market prices a funding round or IPO filing. The Recent Activity feed below highlights whale entries in these markets, and the markets grid is sorted by volume so you can see where conviction (and liquidity) is concentrating first.