Polymarket Wallets a Win Rate Can't See

Sort any Polymarket leaderboard by win rate and the top fills up with wallets that almost never lose. We have written about the catch before (why a 99% win rate is a trap): of the 48,342 wallets with 10+ resolved markets and a win rate of 95% or more, four in five buy at an average price above 95¢, and only 3.9% made more than $1,000 (snapshot of 13 November 2026). A very high win rate often means the wallet buys outcomes that are already all but decided.

This piece is about the opposite mistake: the wallets a win rate hides.

Key takeaways

Under the radar is an OrcaLayer label for Polymarket wallets in the top 10% by Form vs price over the last 90 days that are not in Smart Money.
As of 15 November 2026, 52,462 wallets have a Form vs price number; 5,507 are in the top 10%, and 4,124 of those, three in four, are not in Smart Money. Most of them miss it on win rate.
Tested forward before release: wallets marked as of 1 October 2026 kept beating the price by about +1.8¢ per position on markets resolved by 14 November. Counted one wallet at a time, the median was +1.5¢, the average +0.5¢, and 57% came out ahead.
It is not a "rising" label: in those six weeks 1.7% of the marked wallets moved into Smart Money, against 1.5% of comparable wallets with average form. It describes past trades, not a forecast.

A win rate counts wins, not the price you paid

Take two wallets.

The first buys favorites at 95¢. Those favorites win 96 times out of 100: a 96% win rate, and about one cent of profit per share.

The second buys at 40¢, on outcomes that turn out to win half the time. It loses as often as it wins: a 50% win rate. But a share bought at 40¢ that pays out a dollar half the time is worth 50¢ on average: ten cents of edge per share, ten times the first wallet's.

A win rate only says how often. It says nothing about the price. The second wallet is the one worth watching, and any filter built on win rate will pass it over.

What Form vs price measures

To see such wallets we measure something else, a label we call Form vs price. For every position a wallet bought in a market that has since resolved, we take the outcome (1 if its side won, 0 if not) and subtract the price it paid. Averaged over the markets resolved in the last 90 days, with bigger positions counting more (up to $10,000 each), that is how much more often the wallet won than its prices implied, in cents per position.

Two corrections keep it honest. First, every position is compared with the average result of all traders who bought at the same price. On Polymarket, as in betting markets generally, cheap long shots win a little less often than their price suggests and favorites a little more, and a wallet should not score just for buying favorites. Second, small samples are pulled toward zero, so a lucky week does not top the table. A wallet needs 20 positions to get a number. The details are in the methodology.

We released Form vs price on wallet pages in October. Before that, we checked that it lasts: the top 10% of wallets by form in April to June 2026 beat the price again from July to September, by about 2.4¢ per position.

Three in four top wallets by form are not in Smart Money

As of 15 November 2026, 52,462 wallets have enough positions to get a number. The top 10% (percentile 90 and up) comes to 5,507 wallets. Three in four of them, 4,124 wallets, are not in Smart Money.

That is not a fault in either list. Our Smart Money test asks a different question. It requires a 55%+ win rate on 10+ resolved markets, positive P&L, and not losing by Polymarket's own count, with farmers and bots excluded. It finds wallets whose record shows more wins than losses and real profit. The in-form wallets outside it mostly fail the first condition: of the wallets we followed in the forward test below, 93% have a win rate under 55%. In the six test weeks they bought at mid prices (85% of their money went into positions priced 20¢ to 80¢; their average entry price was 51.5¢) and won more often than those prices implied.

We now mark these wallets Under the radar. The rule: a Polymarket wallet is Under the radar when it is in the top 10% by Form vs price over the last 90 days but is not in Smart Money (and is not a bot).

Does it last? We checked before shipping

Every label we add goes through the same routine: the rules and the pass criteria are written down before the first query that could show a result, and then the label is tested forward, on data it could not have seen.

For this one, we rebuilt the label as it would have looked on 1 October 2026: form from the 90 days before that date, Smart Money status from that day's snapshot. (Two small gaps: a market that stopped trading before 1 October but resolved after it already counts as resolved, and the bot flag is today's.) That gave 4,744 wallets. Then we looked only at what they bought afterwards in markets that resolved by 14 November; 2,760 of them made such trades.

They kept beating the price: +1.8¢ per position after the same price correction, about eight standard errors from zero.
It holds without the five biggest events, without the five biggest wallets, without favorites above 95¢, outside sports (+2.5¢), and without the sports positions bought after the game had started (+1.3¢).
The caveat: that average leans on the more active wallets. Counted one wallet at a time (wallets with 5+ positions), the median marked wallet beat the price by about +1.5¢, but the average across wallets was only about +0.5¢, and 57% of them came out ahead.
Six weeks is short, so the test is weighted toward markets that resolve quickly: 79% of their money in those weeks went into sports.

Why it is not called "Rising"

The working name was "Rising": the hope was to catch strong wallets before they become known. The test said otherwise. In those six weeks, 1.7% of the marked wallets made it into Smart Money, against 1.5% of wallets with average form that were also outside Smart Money on 1 October. They are not on their way in, and while they trade this way most will not get there: a wallet that buys at 50¢ and wins a little more than half the time does not clear the 55% win-rate bar. So the name says where they are, not where they are going.

Three labels, one routine

Over the past week, the same routine settled three labels:

Category specialist: dropped. The idea was a wallet that is good in one category, say politics. Wallets that beat the price did so across categories, not in one of their own; what lasts is general form. (Politics showed a hint: its top wallets did 3.5¢ better in politics than elsewhere, but 80 wallets were too few to rely on.)
Trading style (Maker, In-play, Fast): shipped as a description. Styles hold month to month: of the wallets with a style in June, 60% to 80% still had it in September, against 5% to 15% of the others. We also checked whether copying them costs more and found no reliable difference, so the label says nothing about it.
Under the radar: shipped, renamed.

A label that fails its test does not ship, and we say why.

Where to find Under the radar wallets

Leaderboard: the Under the radar filter, next to the Smart only toggle. It lists all 4,000-plus wallets, with the usual sorting and filters.
Wallet pages: a lime Under the radar badge where the Smart Whale badge would be. Tap it for the rule.
API and MCP: form_vs_price.under_radar in the wallet overview, under_radar on every leaderboard row, and under_radar=1 to list only them (API docs).

Before you copy an Under the radar wallet

It is a 90-day record, not a forecast. The test says the group kept its edge for six weeks, on average. It does not say a given wallet will.
Look at single wallets, not the group. In the test, 57% of marked wallets came out ahead; the group's +1.8¢ leans on the more active ones.
See how it trades. The entry-price bands under Form vs price on the wallet page show where its edge comes from, and the style badges show its habits: posting limit orders (Maker), buying during games (In-play), or selling within two hours (Fast). Then decide whether you could trade that way too.

Before copying any wallet, run the checks in our copy-trading guide and see what happened in our copy-trading backtest.

FAQ

What is an Under the radar wallet on Polymarket? An OrcaLayer label for a wallet in the top 10% by Form vs price over the last 90 days that is not in Smart Money (and is not a bot). Form vs price measures how much more often a wallet won than the prices it paid implied, in cents per position, comparing each position with all traders who bought at the same price; a wallet needs 20 positions to get a number. As of 15 November 2026, 4,124 of the 5,507 wallets in the top 10% were outside Smart Money.

Can a Polymarket wallet with a 50% win rate still have an edge? Yes, if it buys cheaply enough. A wallet that buys at 40¢ on outcomes that win half the time has a 50% win rate but about ten cents of edge per share; one that buys favorites at 95¢ and wins 96 times out of 100 makes about one cent per share. Of the wallets in our forward test, 93% have a win rate under 55%, and their average entry price over the test weeks was 51.5¢.

Is Under the radar a buy signal? No. It describes past trades: over the last 90 days, the wallet has bought cheaper than the outcomes justified. Whether its next trade is good is a separate question.

Why not simply add these wallets to Smart Money? Because the two answer different questions. Smart Money looks for a record of winning more often than losing, with real profit. Under the radar looks for recent buying below what the outcomes justified. A wallet can be in Smart Money, in the top 10% by form, or both; about a quarter of the top 10% by form are both, and those carry the Smart Whale badge. Under the radar marks the rest.

How often is it updated? Form vs price is recounted every night, and so is the mark. A wallet loses it when it leaves the top 10%, joins Smart Money or is flagged as a bot.

Data: OrcaLayer's index of Polymarket fills. Counts as of 15 November 2026; forward test from 1 October to 14 November 2026. Full method: methodology.