CalculatedRisk08 · Polymarket wallet 0xe937…d46a

Wallet snapshot

CalculatedRisk08 has made 5,001 trades on Polymarket across 780 markets, $144K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (30%) and sports (30%). On 732 resolved markets the win rate is 38%, lifetime P&L +$14K. It holds 12 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2027?". Last trade: Nov 13, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2027?Yes · $432 · 12¢ → 13¢
• Will the D66–VVD–CDA Dutch coalition break in 2026?No · $82 · 33¢ → 43¢
• Fourth Jensen Huang affair reported by November 13?Yes · $44 · 8¢ → 2¢
• Will 7 or more Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?Yes · $22 · 5¢ → 6¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13?No · $4 · 2¢ → 1¢
• Nicholas Galitzine announced as next James Bond?Yes · $3 · 0¢ → 0¢
• Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?Yes · $2 · 1¢ → 0¢
• Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?Yes · $2 · 0¢ → 0¢
• Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?Yes · $1 · 0¢ → 0¢
• Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?Yes · $1 · 0¢ → 0¢

Latest closed positions

• Third Jensen Huang affair reported by December 31?Yes · +$79 · Nov 12, 2026
• ChatGPT Full Outage by November 30?Yes · +$404 · Nov 12, 2026
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?No · -$32 · Nov 12, 2026
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?No · -$35 · Nov 12, 2026
• Torino FC vs. US Lecce: Torino FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Yes · -$52 · Nov 12, 2026
• Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Yes · -$3 · Nov 12, 2026
• Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

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