Polymarket wallet 0xaf83…8a57

Wallet snapshot

Wallet 0xaf83…8a57 has made 146 trades on Polymarket across 144 markets, $146 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (11%) and economics (10%). On 135 resolved markets the win rate is 60%, lifetime P&L +$18. It holds 5 open positions right now; the largest is No on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?". Last trade: Nov 13, 2026.

Largest open positions

• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?No · $1 · 77¢ → 78¢
• Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?No · $1 · 67¢ → 66¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?Yes · $1 · 42¢ → 40¢
• Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?No · $1 · 73¢ → 59¢
• Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from November 10 to November 17, 2026?Yes · $1 · 29¢ → 21¢

Latest closed positions

• SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 13?No · +$2 · Nov 13, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?No · +$0 · Nov 13, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?Yes · -$1 · Nov 13, 2026
• Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?No · -$1 · Nov 13, 2026
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?Yes · -$1 · Nov 13, 2026
• Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?No · -$1 · Nov 12, 2026
• Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.