big-short · Polymarket wallet 0x63c6…43a5

Wallet snapshot

big-short has made 9,790 trades on Polymarket across 1,305 markets, $584K in volume. Most of it is in politics (47%) and geopolitics (19%). On 1,289 resolved markets the win rate is 71%, lifetime P&L +$53K. It holds 7 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?". Last trade: Oct 16, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No · $2,166 · 30¢ → 66¢
• Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?No · $1,331 · 88¢ → 97¢
• Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?No · $593 · 83¢ → 96¢
• Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes · $355 · 24¢ → 64¢
• Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?No · $277 · 76¢ → 95¢
• Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?No · $53 · 56¢ → 89¢
• Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Yes · $1 · 21¢ → 2¢

Latest closed positions

• Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No · +$79 · Sep 27, 2026
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No · +$192 · Jul 28, 2026
• Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No · +$71 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No · +$524 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No · +$586 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?No · +$84 · Jul 1, 2026
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No · -$20 · Jul 1, 2026

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