46500 · Polymarket wallet 0x53a7…2b66

+$12 lifetime P&L · 87.5% win rate · 32 resolved markets · 0x53a74d3fa67dcc477a5273c113c01a88bc212b66

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Wallet snapshot

46500 has made 103 trades on Polymarket across 35 markets, $175K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (51%) and crypto (20%). On 32 resolved markets the win rate is 87.5%, lifetime P&L +$12. It holds 4 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?". Last trade: Jul 2, 2026.

Largest open positions

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No · $20 · 96¢ → 98¢
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?No · $12 · 93¢ → 97¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes · $0 · 11¢ → 2¢
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Yes · $0 · 9¢ → 4¢

Latest closed positions

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?No · +$1 · Apr 26, 2026
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No · +$2 · Apr 7, 2026
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes · -$0 · Feb 15, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?No · +$0 · Feb 9, 2026
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No · -$7 · Feb 9, 2026
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?No · +$0 · Feb 2, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No · +$3 · Feb 2, 2026
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes · +$0 · Jan 31, 2026
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?Yes · +$1 · Jan 27, 2026
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?No · +$1 · Jan 26, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.