Polymarket wallet 0x533c…9ba7

Wallet snapshot

Wallet 0x533c…9ba7 has made 121 trades on Polymarket across 120 markets, $121 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (15%) and economics (10%). On 111 resolved markets the win rate is 55%, lifetime P&L +$19. It holds 8 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?". Last trade: Nov 11, 2026.

Largest open positions

• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?Yes · $1 · 42¢ → 55¢
• Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?Yes · $1 · 51¢ → 66¢
• Israel military action against Lebanon on November 12?Yes · $1 · 68¢ → 84¢
• S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 11?Yes · $1 · 78¢ → 93¢
• Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?No · $1 · 73¢ → 87¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?No · $1 · 75¢ → 74¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?No · $1 · 55¢ → 50¢
• Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?No · $0 · 29¢ → 14¢

Latest closed positions

• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Yes · +$0 · Nov 10, 2026
• Gemini Carbon released by November 13, 2026?Yes · +$0 · Nov 10, 2026
• Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?Yes · -$1 · Nov 10, 2026
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 9, 2026?No · +$2 · Nov 10, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?No · -$1 · Nov 9, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?Yes · +$1 · Nov 9, 2026
• SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 9?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.