Polymarket wallet 0x4ef9…7a38

Wallet snapshot

Wallet 0x4ef9…7a38 has made 183 trades on Polymarket across 95 markets, $185 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (14%) and economics (7%). On 92 resolved markets the win rate is 58.7%, lifetime P&L +$6. It holds 3 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?". Last trade: Oct 22, 2026.

Largest open positions

• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Yes · $1 · 80¢ → 97¢
• S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 27?Yes · $1 · 61¢ → 49¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?Yes · $0 · 51¢ → 19¢

Latest closed positions

• Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?Yes · +$2 · Oct 26, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Yes · -$1 · Oct 25, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?No · +$1 · Oct 22, 2026
• Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?No · +$0 · Oct 20, 2026
• Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?Yes · -$1 · Oct 20, 2026
• S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16?No · +$2 · Oct 16, 2026
• Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $162 Week of October 12 2026?Yes · -$1 · Oct 16, 2026
• Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?Yes · +$1 · Oct 16, 2026
• S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 15?Yes · +$0 · Oct 15, 2026
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?No · +$0 · Oct 15, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.