magicball · Polymarket wallet 0x1fb7…2b39

Wallet snapshot

magicball has made 51 trades on Polymarket across 27 markets, $120 in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (44%) and tech (15%). On 24 resolved markets the win rate is 75%, lifetime P&L +$23. It holds 2 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?". Last trade: Sep 14, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No · $30 · 57¢ → 85¢
• Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes · $1 · 14¢ → 7¢

Latest closed positions

• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No · +$0 · Sep 14, 2026
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?No · +$0 · Aug 19, 2026
• U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?No · +$3 · Aug 3, 2026
• Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Yes · +$0 · Aug 1, 2026
• Nothing Ever Happens: JulyYes · +$0 · Aug 1, 2026
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No · +$0 · Aug 1, 2026
• Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?No · +$0 · Aug 1, 2026
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes · +$0 · Jul 31, 2026
• Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Yes · +$0 · Jul 28, 2026
• Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes · +$2 · Jul 28, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.