Alarmed-Segment · Polymarket wallet 0x12ce…36ee

Wallet snapshot

Alarmed-Segment has made 253 trades on Polymarket across 177 markets, $6,473 in volume. Most of it is in crypto (32%) and economics (23%). On 170 resolved markets the win rate is 88.2%, lifetime P&L +$56. It holds 5 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?". Last trade: Oct 12, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?No · $9 · 99¢ → 100¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No · $7 · 29¢ → 30¢
• Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?No · $5 · 100¢ → 100¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes · $1 · 14¢ → 13¢
• Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes · $0 · 1¢ → 0¢

Latest closed positions

• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Yes · +$1 · Oct 12, 2026
• Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes · +$0 · Oct 5, 2026
• Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes · $0 · Oct 4, 2026
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?No · +$0 · Oct 1, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No · +$1 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September?No · +$0 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.