Economics17 days left
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
YES Price
9¢
9% implied
NO Price
91¢
91% implied
Volume
$178.2K
4,176 trades
Smart Whales
108
of 481 traders · 2 on both sides
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
5 MARKETS · $546.4K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting
0¢+41¢$25.8K20/29Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting+41¢0¢
$25.8K20/29
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting←
9¢+20¢$178.2K31/76Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting←+20¢9¢
$178.2K31/76
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting
0¢+61¢$14.1K25/16Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting+61¢0¢
$14.1K25/16
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
35 YESvs75 NO
32%68%
68% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 18% YES by dollars · 14 YES vs 24 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 87%· net of hedges
+27 new YES$1.1K+50 new NO$6.6K
$196 of this was bought on both sides by the same 12 buyers — left out of momentum
3 smart whales22 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$22 of $10.3K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $1.8K·NO $8.5KYES Team
Total Invested
$7.6K
Avg Win Rate
63.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$5.9K(-77.0%)
Whales
35
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed🥇hedged
Entry 92¢·4,190.1 shares·also $562 on NO
Invested
$3.9K
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
$-3513
$-3513INV $3.9K · WR 55.3%
E
exothetajunkie🥈
Entry 31¢·2,193.6 shares
Invested
$674
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-488
$-488INV $674 · WR 59.7%
N
nicholasflamel🥉
Entry 102¢·625.9 shares
Invested
$636
Win Rate
61.2%
Position P&L
$-583
$-583INV $636 · WR 61.2%
P
polmarke195
Entry 42¢·1,317.7 shares
Invested
$559
Win Rate
91.3%
Position P&L
$-447
$-447INV $559 · WR 91.3%
A
Ahpo
Entry 75¢·643.6 shares
Invested
$485
Win Rate
92.2%
Position P&L
$-430
$-430INV $485 · WR 92.2%
J
Jest55◆Proven
Entry 28¢·914.8 shares
Invested
$259
Win Rate
83.3%
Position P&L
$-181
$-181INV $259 · WR 83.3%
S
Started-with-20-USD◆Proven
Entry 51¢·289 shares
Invested
$147
Win Rate
59.0%
Position P&L
$-123
$-123INV $147 · WR 59.0%
C
charlatta
Entry 41¢·135.3 shares
Invested
$55
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
$-44
$-44INV $55 · WR 87.3%
E
enrico-vasaio
Entry 25¢·200 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
63.2%
Position P&L
$-33
$-33INV $50 · WR 63.2%
T
tinman2
Entry 39¢·58.1 shares
Invested
$22
Win Rate
65.9%
Position P&L
$-18
$-18INV $22 · WR 65.9%
Showing top 10 of 35
NO Team
Total Invested
$45.0K
Avg Win Rate
79.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$15.1K(+33.5%)
Whales
75
B
balthazar🥇
Entry 68¢·12,854 shares
Invested
$8.7K
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$3048
+$3048INV $8.7K · WR 72.2%
B
Bigggggggg🥈
Entry 59¢·12,599.6 shares
Invested
$7.5K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$4056
+$4056INV $7.5K · WR 85.8%
Q
qwen4.1.fund🥉
Entry 81¢·3,797.3 shares
Invested
$3.1K
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$401
+$401INV $3.1K · WR 85.9%
D
donthackme
Entry 90¢·3,045.4 shares
Invested
$2.7K
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$41
+$41INV $2.7K · WR 87.7%
Q
QMG-CORE
Entry 90¢·3,000.2 shares
Invested
$2.7K
Win Rate
81.2%
Position P&L
+$49
+$49INV $2.7K · WR 81.2%
G
gmgmgmgmg
Entry 52¢·4,739.5 shares
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$1871
+$1871INV $2.5K · WR 79.2%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 88¢·1,264.9 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$48
+$48INV $1.1K · WR 88.2%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 89¢·1,196.1 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
68.2%
Position P&L
+$30
+$30INV $1.1K · WR 68.2%
P
plainfolder
Entry 70¢·1,323 shares
Invested
$924
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
+$287
+$287INV $924 · WR 86.0%
P
Pure-Eyeliner
Entry 77¢·1,024.8 shares
Invested
$789
Win Rate
56.6%
Position P&L
+$148
+$148INV $789 · WR 56.6%
Showing top 10 of 75
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