GeopoliticsResolved

Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

0¢

0% implied

NO Price

100¢

100% implied

Volume

$28.9K

536 trades

Smart Whales

12

of 140 traders

Smart Money Consensus

3 YESvs9 NO

25%75%

75% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 37% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 2 NO taking a side

Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $93 is directional: YES $35·NO $58

YES Team

Total Invested

$71

Avg Win Rate

63.9%

Aggregate P&L

-$71(-100.0%)

Whales

3

Entry 2¢·2,002.5 shares

$-35INV $35 · WR 67.8%

4fee-s3🥈hedged

Entry 42¢·50 shares·also $45 on NO

$-21INV $21 · WR 58.6%

Marco-Rubio🥉

Entry 2¢·626.5 shares

$-15INV $15 · WR 62.5%

NO Team

Total Invested

$4.6K

Avg Win Rate

71.2%

Aggregate P&L

+$306(+6.6%)

Whales

9

Entry 92¢·2,040 shares

+$160INV $1.9K · WR 73.7%

Warren-BuffettProven🥈

Entry 98¢·1,467.8 shares

+$34INV $1.4K · WR 65.3%

Entry 83¢·599.7 shares

+$100INV $500 · WR 69.5%

Entry 100¢·397.9 shares

+$0INV $397 · WR 88.4%

Entry 99¢·238.7 shares

+$3INV $236 · WR 62.7%

Entry 98¢·76 shares

+$2INV $74 · WR 62.9%

Entry 98¢·56 shares

+$1INV $55 · WR 87.1%

Entry 89¢·50 shares·also $21 on YES

+$6INV $45 · WR 58.6%

Entry 94¢·3.5 shares

+$0INV $3 · WR 55.5%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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