Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$39.5K
692 trades
Smart Whales
57
of 189 traders
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $41.1K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026←
0¢+18¢$39.5K10/47by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026←+18¢0¢
$39.5K10/47
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
29¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—29¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
10 YESvs47 NO
18%83%
83% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $22 is directional: YES $22·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$30
Avg Win Rate
67.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$28(-93.9%)
Whales
10
R
russell110320🥇
Entry 3¢·688.3 shares
Invested
$22
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
$-22
$-22INV $22 · WR 67.5%
P
PiratePyro🥈
Entry 1¢·312.6 shares
Invested
$3
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $3 · WR 71.6%
R
Radiant-Nonbeliever🥉
Entry 1¢·168 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $2 · WR 59.6%
K
Knowing-Arthur-Ash
Entry 1¢·100.1 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $1 · WR 59.7%
Showing top 4 of 10
NO Team
Total Invested
$10.3K
Avg Win Rate
80.8%
Aggregate P&L
+$2.0K(+19.6%)
Whales
47
M
melchior1248🥇
Entry 78¢·2,224.3 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
+$485
+$485INV $1.7K · WR 69.2%
I
influenz.eth🥈
Entry 96¢·1,029.1 shares
Invested
$990
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$39
+$39INV $990 · WR 85.8%
A
Anon321321🥉
Entry 86¢·990.9 shares
Invested
$853
Win Rate
86.3%
Position P&L
+$138
+$138INV $853 · WR 86.3%
E
e46m3
Entry 88¢·892.6 shares
Invested
$783
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$110
+$110INV $783 · WR 79.6%
D
donthackme
Entry 95¢·636.5 shares
Invested
$607
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$30
+$30INV $607 · WR 87.7%
I
itsjustcheddar
Entry 99¢·603.8 shares
Invested
$598
Win Rate
80.8%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $598 · WR 80.8%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 86¢·655 shares
Invested
$563
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$92
+$92INV $563 · WR 88.2%
B
balthazar
Entry 100¢·382.1 shares
Invested
$381
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $381 · WR 72.2%
M
Motionless-Feedback
Entry 86¢·414 shares
Invested
$355
Win Rate
86.9%
Position P&L
+$59
+$59INV $355 · WR 86.9%
P
plainfolder
Entry 83¢·422 shares
Invested
$350
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
+$72
+$72INV $350 · WR 86.0%
Showing top 10 of 47
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