Resolved
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$283.0K
3,641 trades
Smart Whales
147
of 865 traders
February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
7 MARKETS · $284.5K MATCHEDSmart Money
by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026←
0¢+37¢$283.0K54/93by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026←+37¢0¢
$283.0K54/93
by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026
23¢−23¢$1640/1by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026−23¢23¢
$1640/1
by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026
33¢—$50/0by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026—33¢
$50/0
by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026
44¢—$950/0by between 1.40ºC and 1.44ºC in October 2026—44¢
$950/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
54 YESvs93 NO
37%63%
63% of smart money holding this market is on NO
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
YES Team
Total Invested
$22.1K
Avg Win Rate
73.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$17.2K(-78.2%)
Whales
54
E
enrich-metal-dry🥇
Entry 98¢·2,405 shares
Invested
$2.4K
Win Rate
62.1%
Position P&L
$-2362
$-2362INV $2.4K · WR 62.1%
C
clawLeg🥈hedged
Entry 99¢·2,015 shares·also $44 on NO
Invested
$2.0K
Win Rate
72.4%
Position P&L
$-1994
$-1994INV $2.0K · WR 72.4%
C
Churnlonely🥉hedged
Entry 99¢·1,995 shares·also $44 on NO
Invested
$2.0K
Win Rate
82.8%
Position P&L
$-1974
$-1974INV $2.0K · WR 82.8%
F
Few188hedged
Entry 99¢·1,907 shares·also $42 on NO
Invested
$1.9K
Win Rate
64.0%
Position P&L
$-1887
$-1887INV $1.9K · WR 64.0%
C
cheeseqh22hedged
Entry 99¢·1,830 shares·also $40 on NO
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
77.8%
Position P&L
$-1811
$-1811INV $1.8K · WR 77.8%
I
immensenk45hedged
Entry 99¢·1,757 shares·also $39 on NO
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
82.8%
Position P&L
$-1739
$-1739INV $1.7K · WR 82.8%
C
caught.tilt.cashhedged
Entry 99¢·1,719 shares·also $38 on NO
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
$-1701
$-1701INV $1.7K · WR 75.0%
M
memory128
Entry 101¢·1,310 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
90.9%
Position P&L
$-1316
$-1316INV $1.3K · WR 90.9%
F
fatherSpatialhedged
Entry 96¢·1,249 shares·also $41 on NO
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
60.0%
Position P&L
$-1203
$-1203INV $1.2K · WR 60.0%
R
russell110320hedged
Entry 76¢·1,465.6 shares·also $502 on NO
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
$-1108
$-1108INV $1.1K · WR 67.5%
Showing top 10 of 54
NO Team
Total Invested
$23.6K
Avg Win Rate
76.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$19.0K(+80.6%)
Whales
93
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 35¢·6,445.8 shares
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$4198
+$4198INV $2.2K · WR 85.8%
C
Cigaregg🥈hedged
Entry 96¢·2,227 shares·also $73 on YES
Invested
$2.1K
Win Rate
82.4%
Position P&L
+$79
+$79INV $2.1K · WR 82.4%
C
Clutch-During🥉hedged
Entry 99¢·1,817 shares·also $40 on YES
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
73.1%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $1.8K · WR 73.1%
E
Exchange-Athlete
Entry 99¢·1,457 shares
Invested
$1.4K
Win Rate
78.8%
Position P&L
+$20
+$20INV $1.4K · WR 78.8%
G
gauge-sciencehedged
Entry 99¢·1,423 shares·also $35 on YES
Invested
$1.4K
Win Rate
74.1%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $1.4K · WR 74.1%
A
areaiu95
Entry 99¢·1,408 shares
Invested
$1.4K
Win Rate
71.4%
Position P&L
+$19
+$19INV $1.4K · WR 71.4%
A
argue996
Entry 99¢·1,310 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
68.8%
Position P&L
+$18
+$18INV $1.3K · WR 68.8%
R
russell110320hedged
Entry 34¢·1,465.6 shares·also $1.1K on YES
Invested
$502
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
+$963
+$963INV $502 · WR 67.5%
M
melchior1248
Entry 15¢·1,818.2 shares
Invested
$281
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
+$1537
+$1537INV $281 · WR 69.2%
C
clawLeghedged
Entry 2¢·2,015 shares·also $2.0K on YES
Invested
$44
Win Rate
72.4%
Position P&L
+$1970
+$1970INV $44 · WR 72.4%
Showing top 10 of 93
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