Politics14 days left
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
YES Price
25¢
25% implied
NO Price
75¢
75% implied
Volume
$101.6K
1,406 trades
Smart Whales
68
of 280 traders · 1 on both sides
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
8 MARKETS · $486.1K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
19 YESvs50 NO
28%73%
73% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 8% YES by dollars · 16 YES vs 20 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 71%· net of hedges
+36 new YES$3.1K+33 new NO$7.2K
$704 of this was bought on both sides by the same 7 buyers — left out of momentum
5 smart whales8 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$3 of $21.5K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $1.8K·NO $19.7KYES Team
Total Invested
$2.6K
Avg Win Rate
67.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.0K(-39.9%)
Whales
19
A
Antony82🥇hedged
Entry 111¢·700.7 shares·also $353 on NO
Invested
$778
Win Rate
61.7%
Position P&L
$-607
$-607INV $778 · WR 61.7%
T
ThanksGivingTurkey1001🥈
Entry 50¢·1,352.9 shares
Invested
$672
Win Rate
69.7%
Position P&L
$-348
$-348INV $672 · WR 69.7%
R
Ryxon21◆Proven🥉
Entry 25¢·2,000 shares
Invested
$500
Win Rate
71.3%
Position P&L
$-20
$-20INV $500 · WR 71.3%
G
GroovyCr0c0dil3
Entry 28¢·799.7 shares
Invested
$225
Win Rate
57.9%
Position P&L
$-33
$-33INV $225 · WR 57.9%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 51¢·200 shares
Invested
$102
Win Rate
70.5%
Position P&L
$-54
$-54INV $102 · WR 70.5%
U
UN-Sure◆Proven
Entry 60¢·124.4 shares
Invested
$74
Win Rate
91.2%
Position P&L
$-44
$-44INV $74 · WR 91.2%
Q
QMG-CORE
Entry 11¢·500 shares
Invested
$56
Win Rate
81.2%
Position P&L
+$64
+$64INV $56 · WR 81.2%
N
newmasterroshi
Entry 23¢·202 shares
Invested
$47
Win Rate
76.6%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $47 · WR 76.6%
D
dsoperative
Entry 21¢·173.9 shares
Invested
$37
Win Rate
60.3%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $37 · WR 60.3%
S
Sturdy-Thrush
Entry 27¢·99.8 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
74.1%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $27 · WR 74.1%
Showing top 10 of 19
NO Team
Total Invested
$27.8K
Avg Win Rate
72.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$4.5K(+16.2%)
Whales
50
R
Renan2030🥇
Entry 69¢·20,340.4 shares
Invested
$14.0K
Win Rate
77.3%
Position P&L
+$1466
+$1466INV $14.0K · WR 77.3%
M
melchior1248🥈
Entry 52¢·7,321 shares
Invested
$3.8K
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
+$1756
+$1756INV $3.8K · WR 69.2%
J
JAMJAMJAM4🥉
Entry 67¢·3,333 shares
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
55.0%
Position P&L
+$303
+$303INV $2.2K · WR 55.0%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
Entry 71¢·1,784.6 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
+$91
+$91INV $1.3K · WR 55.3%
D
donthackme
Entry 72¢·1,176.7 shares
Invested
$846
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$48
+$48INV $846 · WR 87.7%
Q
qwen4.1.fund
Entry 61¢·1,225.7 shares
Invested
$751
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$175
+$175INV $751 · WR 85.9%
E
e46m3
Entry 57¢·1,080.3 shares
Invested
$619
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$197
+$197INV $619 · WR 79.6%
S
sdhyky
Entry 56¢·1,000.4 shares
Invested
$556
Win Rate
59.4%
Position P&L
+$204
+$204INV $556 · WR 59.4%
C
cdecercwd
Entry 77¢·580 shares
Invested
$445
Win Rate
60.0%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $445 · WR 60.0%
A
Antony82hedged
Entry 50¢·700.7 shares·also $778 on YES
Invested
$353
Win Rate
61.7%
Position P&L
+$176
+$176INV $353 · WR 61.7%
Showing top 10 of 50
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