PoliticsResolved
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$14.7K
349 trades
Smart Whales
38
of 111 traders
Smart Money Consensus
8 YESvs30 NO
21%79%
79% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 67% YES by dollars · 6 YES vs 4 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $919 is directional: YES $612·NO $307YES Team
Total Invested
$798
Avg Win Rate
62.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$749(-93.8%)
Whales
8
G
gambler925🥇
Entry 13¢·2,668.9 shares
Invested
$356
Win Rate
56.6%
Position P&L
$-330
$-330INV $356 · WR 56.6%
S
Seeking-Alpha01🥈
Entry 12¢·1,493.1 shares
Invested
$185
Win Rate
67.6%
Position P&L
$-170
$-170INV $185 · WR 67.6%
M
melchior1248🥉
Entry 17¢·1,065.7 shares
Invested
$177
Win Rate
69.3%
Position P&L
$-177
$-177INV $177 · WR 69.3%
A
Antony82
Entry 10¢·500 shares
Invested
$52
Win Rate
60.4%
Position P&L
$-47
$-47INV $52 · WR 60.4%
S
solder
Entry 11¢·90 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
72.6%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $10 · WR 72.6%
B
balthazarhedged
Entry 1¢·948.2 shares·also $855 on NO
Invested
$9
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $9 · WR 72.1%
A
AnCap.Investor
Entry 4¢·220 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $9 · WR 69.2%
M
mapleggg
Entry 17¢·1.3 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 86.2%
NO Team
Total Invested
$5.7K
Avg Win Rate
74.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.7K(+30.7%)
Whales
30
A
almost-never🥇
Entry 88¢·2,500 shares
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
73.0%
Position P&L
+$310
+$310INV $2.2K · WR 73.0%
B
balthazar🥈hedged
Entry 73¢·1,170.7 shares·also $9 on YES
Invested
$855
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
+$316
+$316INV $855 · WR 72.1%
Q
qwen4.1.fund🥉
Entry 75¢·1,100 shares
Invested
$820
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$280
+$280INV $820 · WR 85.9%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 50¢·641.2 shares
Invested
$321
Win Rate
70.5%
Position P&L
+$320
+$320INV $321 · WR 70.5%
P
PetrGrepl
Entry 88¢·336.3 shares
Invested
$295
Win Rate
68.0%
Position P&L
+$38
+$38INV $295 · WR 68.0%
P
Pricey-Million
Entry 64¢·248.1 shares
Invested
$159
Win Rate
59.9%
Position P&L
+$89
+$89INV $159 · WR 59.9%
C
Colossal-Bookcase-Saloon
Entry 52¢·264.7 shares
Invested
$137
Win Rate
59.8%
Position P&L
+$128
+$128INV $137 · WR 59.8%
L
luciebot
Entry 50¢·250 shares
Invested
$125
Win Rate
83.5%
Position P&L
+$125
+$125INV $125 · WR 83.5%
S
Shallow-Diadem
Entry 52¢·230.5 shares
Invested
$120
Win Rate
59.5%
Position P&L
+$111
+$111INV $120 · WR 59.5%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 89¢·130 shares
Invested
$115
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$15
+$15INV $115 · WR 89.0%
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