Geopolitics48 days left

EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?

YES Price
10¢
10% implied
NO Price
90¢
90% implied
Volume
$9.3K
286 trades
Smart Whales
13
of 123 traders

Smart Money Consensus

4 YESvs9 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 10¢
YES 31%NO 69%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 10¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 16% YES by dollars · 4 YES vs 9 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 97%· net of hedges
+7 new YES+6 new NO
$21 bought on both sides by the same 5 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘsplit 3 · 3
YES 3NO 3one dot = one wallet

The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 2 days ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested

Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.2K is directional: YES $202·NO $1.0K

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 31% YES: EU country expels Russian ambassador…