Geopolitics2 days left

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

11¢

11% implied

NO Price

89¢

89% implied

Volume

$14.2K

40 trades

Smart Whales

7

of 22 traders

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?

5 MARKETS · $38.8K MATCHED

Smart Money

Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13

44¢−11¢$5911/2

Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13−11¢44¢

Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13

39¢−25¢$8131/6

Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13−25¢39¢

Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13

2¢+38¢$1.6K2/3

Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13+38¢2¢

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13

5¢−5¢$21.7K0/3

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13−5¢5¢

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13←

11¢+9¢$14.2K1/4

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13←+9¢11¢

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Smart Money Consensus

3 YESvs4 NO

43%57%

57% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 67% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 2 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 88%· net of hedges

+3 new YES$19+3 new NO$122

$5 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum

1 smart whale0 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $233 is directional: YES $156·NO $77

YES Team

Total Invested

$156

Avg Win Rate

72.5%

Aggregate P&L

-$57(-36.8%)

Whales

3

Entry 20¢·700 shares

$-62INV $140 · WR 71.9%

Entry 10¢·136.1 shares

+$1INV $14 · WR 79.2%

Entry 3¢·50 shares

+$4INV $2 · WR 61.7%

NO Team

Total Invested

$119

Avg Win Rate

88.3%

Aggregate P&L

-$8(-6.6%)

Whales

4

Entry 97¢·75 shares

$-6INV $73 · WR 90.8%

Novus0rdoSeclorum🥈

Entry 95¢·34 shares

$-2INV $32 · WR 83.9%

godblessme2026🥉

Entry 93¢·10 shares

$-0INV $9 · WR 88.2%

Entry 84¢·6 shares

+$0INV $5 · WR 79.6%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 60% YES: fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab…