Politics19 days left

Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election?

View on Polymarket

YES Price

31¢

31% implied

NO Price

69¢

69% implied

Volume

$124

9 trades

Smart Whales

4

of 8 traders

CA-49 House Election Margin of Victory

8 MARKETS · $1.7K MATCHED

Smart Money

30¢+70¢$1031/0

by 0%-5%+70¢30¢

37¢−4¢$931/2

by 10%-15%−4¢37¢

27¢+23¢$1271/1

by 15%-20%+23¢27¢

34¢+16¢$1201/1

by 20%-25%+16¢34¢

29¢−15¢$9151/6

by 25%-30%−15¢29¢

39¢−6¢$861/2

by 30% or more−6¢39¢

36¢+14¢$921/1

by 5%-10%+14¢36¢

Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election←

31¢−6¢$1241/3

Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-49 House election←−6¢31¢

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Smart Money Consensus

1 YESvs3 NO

25%75%

75% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side

Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $1 is directional: YES $1·NO $0

YES Team

Total Invested

$1

Avg Win Rate

75.0%

Aggregate P&L

+$7(+701.0%)

Whales

1

Entry 5¢·22 shares

+$7INV $1 · WR 75.0%

NO Team

Total Invested

$102

Avg Win Rate

88.6%

Aggregate P&L

+$38(+37.4%)

Whales

3

graynotebook19🥇

Entry 50¢·80 shares

+$15INV $40 · WR 89.3%

northdrawer🥈

Entry 50¢·80 shares

+$15INV $40 · WR 87.7%

smallreceipt🥉

Entry 50¢·44 shares

+$8INV $22 · WR 89.0%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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