CS2Thunderpick World Championship · Group A · BO3View on Polymarket RESOLVED · Aurora Gaming

Aurora Gaming2-0NIP

Thunderpick World Championship · Group A· Oct 15, 2026 · 08:30–10:46 UTC· 2h 16m· VOD on twitch
Volume
$1.2M
Trades
5,481
Significant
71 ≥ $3,420
Low · high
60¢ → 99.9¢
Price path · full matchYES = Aurora Gaming · 1-min VWAP · rings = 3 largest significant trades, one per wallet · tap a ringshaded beyond 5–95¢ = market priced as decided
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢G1 · Aurora GamingG1G2 · Aurora GamingG260¢ lowmarket priced as decided · 95¢ at 10:05$16.4K YES · CORGI8$8.4K YES · darkmarketmaker$7.9K YES · jnbeatsSMART45%61% Aurora Gaming08:3010:46 resolved
smart consensus leaned AUR from G2 at 92¢ · 45% → 61%
G1Aurora Gaming70¢ → 88¢$159.2K
G2Aurora Gaming88¢ → 99.9¢$119.6K
Walls eatena resting order of $10K+ taken out in under 90 s · the maker is revealed by the fills that hit it · largest first6
WALL EATEN99.7¢ · $12.6K bid wall gone in 28s$8.9K eaten · $3.5K still thereseries
Maker revealed by fills:RIPabloEscobarwhale+2 more on the same level· 99% of the wall was theirs
TAKERS· jnbeats $8.8K· +4 more· 6 fills
WALL EATEN99.6¢ · $12.4K bid wall gone in 28s$8.9K eaten · $2.3K pulled · $1.2K still thereseries
Maker revealed by fills:RIPabloEscobarwhale+2 more on the same level· 99% of the wall was theirs
TAKERS· jnbeats $8.8K· +4 more· 6 fills
WALL EATEN99¢ · $12.2K bid wall gone in 28s$8.9K eaten · $2.1K pulled · $1.3K still thereseries
Maker revealed by fills:RIPabloEscobarwhale+2 more on the same level· 99% of the wall was theirs
TAKERS· jnbeats $8.8K· +4 more· 6 fills
WALL EATEN71¢ · $11.9K bid wall gone in 30s$6.0K eaten · $5.0K pulled · $951 still theremap 2
Maker revealed by fills:3648393489047smart+8 more on the same level· 48% of the wall was theirs
TAKERS· THEHIGHLIFE $2.8K· teardropsaidmyname $1.4K· LOBODAFL $1.4K· +4 more· 15 fills
WALL EATEN72¢ · $11.4K bid wall gone in 34s$6.0K eaten · $5.4K pulledmap 2
Maker revealed by fills:3648393489047smart+3 more on the same level· 87% of the wall was theirs
TAKERS· kid817 $5.3K· animal.bean $720· +5 more· 11 fills
WALL EATEN83¢ · $11.0K bid wall gone in 35s$4.0K eaten · $4.5K pulled · $2.6K still theremap 2
Maker revealed by fills:pnhkybsmart+9 more on the same level· 34% of the wall was theirs
TAKERS· kid817 $2.9K· Rotating-Creche $1.0K· 15 fills
Earliest big buyersfirst Aurora Gaming buy ≥ $1K · by time28 wallets
1a55330x758d…5d9ebot−$19
$2.5K at 87¢· pre-match · 15h 52m before· win rate 35.4%
2Stickman220xb9ab…f282retail+$1.3K
$3.2K at 72¢· pre-match · 11h 58m before· win rate 52.2%
3HELIOS-ONE0x7951…bb41smart−$200
$1.1K at 71¢· pre-match · 11h 44m before· win rate 60.9%
4pravica0x5c72…7e7eretail+$2.1K
$5.2K at 71¢· pre-match · 11h 31m before· win rate 46.1%
5BlessedKaladin0x7645…3117retail+$840
$2.2K at 72¢· pre-match · 11h 16m before· win rate 49.7%
6cryptoosmith0x451c…ce4eretail+$677
$1.7K at 72¢· pre-match · 11h 16m before· win rate 51.7%
7DemonTimee0x9e07…6e49retail+$5.7K
$14.3K at 72¢· pre-match · 11h 2m before· win rate 46.2%
8g00ey0xba4f…b37bretail+$1.2K
$3.0K at 72¢· pre-match · 10h 45m before· win rate 47.5%
9n0tTODAY0x89a6…429awhale−$24
$1.7K at 72¢· pre-match · 10h 45m before· win rate 49.3%
10Stone13370xc5f0…40ecsmart+$2.2K
$5.5K at 72¢· pre-match · 10h 37m before· win rate 61.4%
Realized P&L at resolution · from on-chain fills · past performance does not guarantee future results
Match leadersrealized P&L · this market · 189 wallets
Top winners
lllllllIlll0xe40e…9770whale+$20.7K
Grand-Access0x4468…b165retail+$7.3K
DemonTimee0x9e07…6e49retail+$5.7K
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70retail+$4.2K
0xbb29…947aretail+$3.8K
Top losers
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319whale−$3.8K
AppleTiime0xe390…e80fretail−$2.8K
fRibrenlc0x6f3e…bcf8retail−$1.9K
Muddy-Noodles0x4de7…1982retail−$1.5K
rookiaski0x1648…e4cfretail−$1.1K
mm / minter (sold more shares than bought — cost outside the book, no P&L shown): Flaky-Integer, WARNINGWARNINGWARNING, Rash-Barometer, RIPabloEscobar +4
Smart consensus · at resolution120 wallets
61%YES Aurora Gaming · the winner· from 45% at match start
YES capital
$342.3K
NO capital
$108.1K
Hedged
$95.7K
Significant ordersFULL MATCH · 71 TRADES ≥ $3,420 · FLOOR $500 · LARGEST FIRST
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a$16.4K
sell YES70¢series08:25:12whale
win rate 40.6%lifetime +$87.1K
YarloslawRouter0x1bcd…0a69$12.1K
sell YES70¢series07:50:41retail
win rate 50.8%lifetime +$2.5K
darkmarketmaker0x3746…c193$8.4K
YES91¢series09:53:07smart
win rate 68.3%lifetime +$102.6K
jnbeats0xcb08…0cb1$7.9K
YES90¢series09:27:26retail
win rate 32.5%lifetime +$12.5K
fkigedgjdgwbg0x52ec…a6f3$7.1K
YES71¢series08:15:47smart
win rate 58.7%lifetime +$431.5K
TrippleEX0x994e…6136$7.1K
YES71¢series08:13:38retail
win rate 63.1%lifetime −$71.2K
jnbeats0xcb08…0cb1$5.9K
YES75¢map 108:39:06retail
win rate 32.5%lifetime +$12.5K
YES77¢map 108:43:03retail
win rate unknownlifetime unknown
Match markets23 MARKETS · CLICK FOR WALLETS AND POSITIONS
seriesCounter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A100¢ / 0¢$462.8Kclosedmap 1Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP - Map 1 Winner100¢ / 0¢$303.8Kclosedmap 2Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs NIP - Map 2 Winner100¢ / 0¢$243.1Kclosedseries totalGames Total: O/U 2.50¢ / 100¢$2.5Kclosedseries handicapMap Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)100¢ / 0¢$131.5Kclosedseries handicapMap Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)50¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round total 1Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5100¢ / 0¢$389closedmap round total 1Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.50¢ / 100¢$4closedmap round total 1Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.550¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round total 2Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.550¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round total 2Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100¢ / 0¢$51closedmap round total 2Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50¢ / 100¢$263closedmap round total 2Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.550¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round total 3Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round handicap 1Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)100¢ / 0¢$930closedmap round handicap 1Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NIP (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5)50¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round handicap 1Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs NIP (+6.5)0¢ / 100¢$172closedmap round handicap 1Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-9.5) vs NIP (+9.5)50¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round handicap 2Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)100¢ / 0¢$2.3Kclosedmap round handicap 2Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs NIP (+6.5)50¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round handicap 2Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-9.5) vs NIP (+9.5)23¢ / 78¢$0closedmap round handicap 2Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-12.5) vs NIP (+12.5)50¢ / 50¢$0closedmap round handicap 3Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs NIP (+3.5)50¢ / 50¢$0closed
Aurora Gaming 2-0 NIP · Thunderpick World Championship · match recap | OrcaLayer