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WeatherZhengzhou
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Zhengzhou

2 live events
Highest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 7? $634 vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZHCCPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 10H02:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 02:00
N 0.0 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 20°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:01
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 21°MEAN 27° · TODAY 22.0°P90 32°
LAST OBS 78 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZHCC resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
22.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
22.0°
MIN · 01:00
20222426283023° · 1¢24° · 1¢25° · 1¢26° · 2¢27° · 2¢28° · 2¢29° · 6¢30° · 12¢31° · 26¢≤22° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 22.0° · 01:00NOW 02:17000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 33.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 02:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 02:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≥32°C
59¢0%
MKT
MDL
60¢ → 59¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $56 · THIN
⚡EDGE -59
30°C
12¢63%
MKT
MDL
11¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
⚡EDGE +51
31°C
26¢35%
MKT
MDL
24¢ → 26¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
WATCH +9
29°C
6¢2%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 6¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR -4
28°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR -2
26°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR -2
27°C
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR -2
25°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR -1
24°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR -1
23°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
≤22°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 111¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZHCC
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets0 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Future markets appear here as Polymarket lists them.
Model track record · ZhengzhouScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-07
16%
LEADER HIT RATE · 31D
5 of 31 days
1.20
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
30°C @ 67% → 33.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 32°C or higher
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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