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Wuhan

4 live events
Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 22? $12.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZHHHPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · 4H 3M LEFT11:57 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
NE 3.1 m/s
WIND
68% RH
DEW POINT 11°
- · 319 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 17:44
SHOWERS 41% BY 11:00
PRECIP 41% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 18°MEAN 24° · TODAY 13.9°P90 29°
LAST OBS 87 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZHHH resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
13.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
13.9°
MIN · 01:00
1416182014° · 0¢15° · 0¢17° · 6¢18° · 25¢19° · 44¢20° · 21¢21° · 4¢≤13° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 21.1°DAY MAX 13.9° · 01:00NOW 11:57000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 21.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -6.1°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:57 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
20°C
21¢53%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 21¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $23 · THIN
⚡EDGE +32
18°C
25¢4%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 25¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
⚡EDGE -21
19°C
44¢28%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 44¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $63 · THIN
⚡EDGE -16
21°C
4¢16%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH +11
17°C
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 6¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
WATCH -6
≤13°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
16°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
14°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
15°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZHHH
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
23°C · 71%
p10-90 22.1-23.2°C
MKT 33¢ · $2.7K
Model track record · WuhanScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
17%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
5 of 30 days
1.20
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
20°C @ 49% → 21.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 21°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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