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Wuhan

4 live events
Highest temperature in Wuhan on September 7? $9.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZHHHPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 6H06:47 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 06:00
NE 2.1 m/s
WIND
83% RH
DEW POINT 18°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:39
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 25°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 6H
+0.0°/h
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 24.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 24°MEAN 31° · TODAY 24.0°P90 37°
LAST OBS 107 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZHHH resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
24.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
21.0°
MIN · 05:00
22242628303231° · 2¢32° · 11¢33° · 47¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 32.0°DAY MAX 24.0° · 01:00NOW 06:47000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 06:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 06:47 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
32°C
11¢59%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE +48
34°C
38¢0%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 38¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $717 · THIN
⚡EDGE -37
33°C
47¢28%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2.2K
⚡EDGE -19
31°C
2¢10%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $20 · THIN
WATCH +8
35°C
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $32 · THIN
WATCH -5
30°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +4
≤28°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
29°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 103¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZHHH
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
TUE 08
33°C · 45%
p10-90 32.0-33.8°C
MKT 39¢ · $3.1K
Model track record · WuhanScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
2%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
1 of 42 days
1.22
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
32°C @ 47% → 32.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 32°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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