WeatherWellington
Wellington Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Wellington on October 15? $42.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: NZWNPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 5-17 · 11H 3M LEFT · NIGHT MAX 13%05:57 LOCAL · 2026-10-15
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 05:30
N 7.7 m/s
WIND
88% RH
DEW POINT 11°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:33
PRECIP NOW · -RA
PRECIP 100% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 17°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 16°C
+0.0°/h
RATE
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.4°
TO 16.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 14°MEAN 16° · TODAY 16.1°P90 18°
LAST OBS 28 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
NZWN resolution station · next METAR ~06:00 · next ENS pull ~11:40 · all temps °C
16.1°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:30
13.9°
MIN · 04:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 17.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.1°AT 05:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 05:57 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤15°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
16°C▲ DAY MAX
68¢100%
MKT
MDL
52¢ → 68¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $788 · THIN
⚡EDGE +33model over market
17°C
29¢0%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 29¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $182 · THIN
⚡EDGE -29
18°C
5¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $61 · THIN
FAIR -5
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
20°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: NZWN
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · WellingtonScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-15
17%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
5 of 30 days
1.29
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
16°C @ 78% → 17.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 17°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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