WeatherWellington
Wellington Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Wellington on October 22? $23.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: NZWNPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 19°C @ 99¢22:42 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 22:30
N 7.2 m/s
WIND
77% RH
DEW POINT 10°
SUN DOWN
SET 19:49
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 14°MEAN 16° · TODAY 13.9°P90 18°
LAST OBS 53 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
NZWN resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~23:40 · all temps °C
13.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 06:00
12.2°
MIN · 00:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 17.8°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.1°AT 22:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 22:42 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤13°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
14°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
15°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
16°C
0¢18%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
17°C
0¢75%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
18°C
0¢8%
MKT
MDL
49¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
19°C
99¢0%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $565 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: NZWN
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · WellingtonScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
17%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
5 of 30 days
1.27
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
17°C @ 67% → 17.8°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 18°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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