WeatherWellington
Wellington Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Wellington on September 7? $86.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: NZWNPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · PASSED19:08 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:00
SSE 9.3 m/s
WIND
76% RH
DEW POINT 6°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:02
PRECIP NOW · -RA
PRECIP 61% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 11°CPEAK PASSED · 10°C HOLDS
+0.0°/h
RATE
-
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 10.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 13°MEAN 15° · TODAY 10.0°P90 17°
LAST OBS 70 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
NZWN resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~22:40 · all temps °C
10.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 18:00
8.0°
MIN · 12:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 15.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -5.0°AT 19:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 19:08 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤9°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
10°C▲ DAY MAX
90¢98%
MKT
MDL
23¢ → 90¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3.3K
WATCH +8
11°C
4¢2%
MKT
MDL
63¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR -1
12°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
10¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
13°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
14°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 93¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: NZWN
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · WellingtonScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
21%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
9 of 42 days
1.19
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
14°C @ 84% → 15.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 15°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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