WeatherWarsaw
Warsaw Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Warsaw on October 22? $12.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: EPWAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-18 · IN 1H · NIGHT MAX 11%08:19 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 08:00
ESE 5.1 m/s
WIND
82% RH
DEW POINT 10°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:27
SHOWERS 100% BY 13:00
PRECIP 100% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 10°MEAN 14°P90 19°
LAST OBS 68 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
EPWA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
-
RUNNING MAX
-
MIN
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 16.1°)Running day max
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 08:19 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤9°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
10°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
11°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
12°C
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR +1
13°C
17¢37%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 17¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $24 · THIN
⚡EDGE +21
14°C
48¢49%
MKT
MDL
44¢ → 48¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $464 · THIN
FAIR +1
15°C
26¢12%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 25¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $80 · THIN
WATCH -14
16°C
5¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
WATCH -5
Σ market 97¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: EPWA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · WarsawScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
1.01
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
16°C @ 69% → 16.1°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 16°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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