WeatherWarsaw
Warsaw Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Warsaw on October 14? $37.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: EPWAPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 13°C @ 100¢19:23 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:00
WSW 2.1 m/s
WIND
93% RH
DEW POINT 8°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:44
SHOWERS 98% BY 19:00
PRECIP 98% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 10°MEAN 14° · TODAY 12.8°P90 19°
LAST OBS 24 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
EPWA resolution station · next METAR ~19:30 · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
12.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 16:30
5.0°
MIN · 04:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 11.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.1°AT 19:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 19:23 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤12°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
13°C
100¢93%
MKT
MDL
44¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $621 · THIN
14°C
0¢7%
MKT
MDL
26¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
15°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
16°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
≥17°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: EPWA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · WarsawScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
1.00
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
12°C @ 53% → 11.1°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 11°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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