Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts

Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m

Resolution station: EPWA

Nearby sensors: PWS network

~2 KM

Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration

Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide

Model track record · WarsawScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27

29%

LEADER HIT RATE · 42D

12 of 42 days

0.90

BRIER SCORE · MODEL

lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant

19°C @ 47% → 18.0°C✗ MISS

YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT

actual bucket 18°C

LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT

We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.

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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/warsaw→ same feed this page reads