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Toronto

6 live events
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 6? $43.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: CYYZPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 22°C @ 99¢17:46 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 17:00
SE 3.1 m/s
WIND
64% RH
DEW POINT 14°
SCT · 486 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:45
DRY
PRECIP 6% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 20°MEAN 23° · TODAY 22.0°P90 26°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 47M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
CYYZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
22.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:00
16.0°
MIN · 07:00
141618202221° · 0¢22° · 99¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 22.0° · 13:00NOW 17:46000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 24.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -3.0°AT 17:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 17:46 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
23°C
1¢24%
MKT
MDL
56¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
22°C
99¢76%
MKT
MDL
25¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.1K
≤21°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
24°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: CYYZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07
25°C · 47%
p10-90 23.5-25.2°C
MKT 57¢ · $12.9K
TUE 08
24°C · 53%
p10-90 23.3-25.5°C
MKT 45¢ · $711
Model track record · TorontoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
29%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
12 of 41 days
0.86
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
24°C @ 63% → 24.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 24°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/toronto→ same feed this page reads