WeatherToronto
Toronto Temperature Markets on Polymarket
2 live eventsHighest temperature in Toronto on July 23? — $34.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: CYYZPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12–16 · 3H 29M LEFT12:31 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 12:00
W 4.6 m/s
WIND
38% RH
DEW POINT 9°
FEW · 862 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 20:51
DRY
PRECIP 1% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 23°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 22°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 22.5° BOUND
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 22M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
CYYZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
22.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 11:00
12.0°
MIN · 01:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 22.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +3.0°AT 12:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 12:31 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤21°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
22°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $59 · THIN
FAIR 0
23°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $59 · THIN
FAIR 0
24°C
10¢26%
MKT
MDL
25¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE +16
25°C
52¢57%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
FAIR +5
26°C
27¢16%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 27¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
WATCH -11
27°C
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR +1
Σ market 91¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — CYYZ
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
— Model track record · TorontoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
0.89
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
21°C @ 47% → 22.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 22°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/toronto→ same feed this page reads