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Toronto

6 live events
Highest temperature in Toronto on October 21? $24.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: CYYZPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 15°C @ 99¢21:04 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 20:00
S 1.5 m/s
WIND
67% RH
DEW POINT 5°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:25
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 10°MEAN 16° · TODAY 13.9°P90 24°
LAST OBS 75 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
CYYZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
13.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:00
3.9°
MIN · 08:00
46810121413° · 0¢14° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10DAY MAX 13.9° · 13:00NOW 21:04000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 17.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +2.8°AT 21:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 21:04 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
15°C
99¢53%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $658 · THIN
14°C
0¢45%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
≤13°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
16°C
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
39¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
17°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
7¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
18°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: CYYZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 22
17°C · 61%
p10-90 15.8-17.5°C
MKT 41¢ · $12.0K
FRI 23
12°C · 45%
p10-90 10.5-12.3°C
MKT 39¢ · $611
Model track record · TorontoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.94
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
16°C @ 69% → 17.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 17°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/toronto→ same feed this page reads