WeatherToronto
Toronto Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Toronto on October 14? $63.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: CYYZPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-19 · 7H 41M LEFT11:19 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
NW 3.6 m/s
WIND
72% RH
DEW POINT 10°
BKN · 184 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:36
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 19°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 18°C
+0.0°/h
RATE
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.7°
TO 18.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 10°MEAN 16° · TODAY 17.8°P90 24°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 19M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
CYYZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
17.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
12.8°
MIN · 08:11
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 27.8°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.8°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:19 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤17°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
18°C▲ DAY MAX
93¢100%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 93¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $199 · THIN
WATCH +8
19°C
7¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 6¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $23 · THIN
WATCH -6
20°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR -1
≥21°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 100¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: CYYZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15
12°C · 76%
p10-90 11.6-12.7°C
MKT 47¢ · $3.2K
FRI 16WIDE SPREAD
12°C · 16%
p10-90 11.2-20.1°C
MKT 27¢ · $199
Model track record · TorontoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
40%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
12 of 30 days
0.92
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
26°C @ 67% → 27.8°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 28°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/toronto→ same feed this page reads