WeatherTokyo
Tokyo Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Tokyo on October 14? $69.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RJTTPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 26°C @ 100¢23:51 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 23:30
N 7.7 m/s
WIND
53% RH
DEW POINT 11°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:07
SHOWERS 46% BY 23:00
PRECIP 46% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY ABOVE P90 · RARE HEAT
P10 18°MEAN 23° · TODAY 26.1°P90 26°
DATA STALE · OBS 3H 2M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RJTT resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~01:40 · all temps °C
26.1°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 10:00
20.0°
MIN · 01:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 22.8°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 23:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 23:51 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤25°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
26°C
100¢75%
MKT
MDL
29¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.4K
27°C
0¢22%
MKT
MDL
27¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
28°C
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
16¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
29°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
30°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RJTT
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · TokyoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
23%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
7 of 30 days
0.96
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
26°C @ 49% → 22.8°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 23°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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