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Tokyo

4 live events
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 7? $26.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RJTTPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 10H02:50 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 02:30
NE 12.9 m/s
WIND · GUST 19.5
94% RH
DEW POINT 22°
SUN DOWN
RISES 05:17
PRECIP NOW · SHRA BR
PRECIP 100% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 24°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 10H
+0.0°/h
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 23.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 25°MEAN 30° · TODAY 23.0°P90 33°
DATA STALE · OBS 7H 38M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RJTT resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
23.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
23.0°
MIN · 01:00
2224262823° · 1¢24° · 5¢25° · 12¢26° · 21¢27° · 35¢28° · 24¢29° · 4¢≤22° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 23.0°DAY MAX 23.0° · 01:00NOW 02:50000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 23.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 02:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 02:50 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
27°C
35¢18%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 35¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $449 · THIN
⚡EDGE -17
28°C
24¢39%
MKT
MDL
25¢ → 23¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $97 · THIN
⚡EDGE +16
29°C
4¢18%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
WATCH +14
25°C
12¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $89 · THIN
WATCH -8
26°C
21¢14%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 21¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $108 · THIN
WATCH -7
24°C
5¢2%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $64 · THIN
FAIR -3
30°C
2¢4%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
FAIR +2
23°C▲ DAY MAX
1¢2%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR +1
≤22°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RJTT
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
TUE 08
30°C · 49%
p10-90 27.9-30.9°C
MKT 28¢ · $1.9K
Model track record · TokyoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-08
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.88
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
23°C @ 43% → 23.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 23°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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