WeatherTel Aviv
Tel Aviv Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 21? $23.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LLBGPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 27°C @ 95¢21:49 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:20
VRB 1.0 m/s
WIND
69% RH
DEW POINT 18°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:01
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 89DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 27°MEAN 29° · TODAY 27.0°P90 32°
DATA STALE · OBS 5H 4M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LLBG resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~01:40 · all temps °C
27.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 16:00
19.0°
MIN · 07:20
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 26.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +2.0°AT 21:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 21:49 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤23°CELIM
5¢0%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
24°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
25°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
26°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
23¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
27°C
95¢22%
MKT
MDL
61¢ → 95¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $12.8K
28°C
0¢65%
MKT
MDL
17¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
29°C
0¢14%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LLBG
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Tel AvivScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.91
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
26°C @ 63% → 26.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 26°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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