WeatherTel Aviv
Tel Aviv Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 6? $37.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LLBGPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 32°C @ 100¢21:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:00
W 2.1 m/s
WIND
66% RH
DEW POINT 21°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:58
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 88DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 30°MEAN 32° · TODAY 32.0°P90 34°
LAST OBS 18 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
LLBG resolution station · next METAR ~21:30 · next ENS pull ~01:40 · all temps °C
32.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:00
25.0°
MIN · 07:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 21:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 21:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤31°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
32°C
100¢43%
MKT
MDL
33¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.4K
33°C
0¢57%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
34°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
35°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
36°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: LLBG
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Tel AvivScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
5%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
2 of 41 days
1.60
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
33°C @ 100% → 32.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 32°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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