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WeatherTel Aviv
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Tel Aviv Temperature Markets on Polymarket

3 live events
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 23? — $24.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: LLBGPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 33°C @ 100¢19:29 LOCAL · 2026-07-23
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:00
W 3.6 m/s
WIND
59% RH
DEW POINT 22°
FEW · 156 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:43
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
LAST OBS 84 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today — hourly observations vs ensemble
LLBG resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
33.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 17:20
26.0°
MIN · 07:00
2628303232° · 0¢33° · 100¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 33.0°DAY MAX 33.0° · 17:20NOW 19:29000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10–90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 33.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 19:00
— Bucket scale — model vs marketPROCLOB 19:29 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤32°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
33°C
100¢0%
MKT
MDL
67¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2.2K
34°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
35°C
0¢84%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
36°C
0¢16%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
37°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
— Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station — LLBG
Nearby sensors — PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors — MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
— Next days — ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 24
34°C · 63%
p10–90 33.1–33.9°C
MKT 63¢ · $11.0K
SAT 25
36°C · 33%
p10–90 33.4–36.5°C
MKT 43¢ · $3.2K
— Model track record · Tel AvivScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-19
0%
LEADER HIT RATE · 4D
0 of 4 days
1.83
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
35°C @ 98% → 33.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 33°C
LAST 4 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2–3 weeks of history — these are raw-model numbers.
— Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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