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Taipei

4 live events
Highest temperature in Taipei on September 7? $10.0K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RCSSPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 10H02:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 02:00
VRB 0.5 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 23°
SUN DOWN
RISES 05:36
SHOWERS 92% BY 09:00
PRECIP 92% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 77D
P10 32°MEAN 34° · TODAY 24.0°P90 36°
LAST OBS 78 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RCSS resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
24.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
24.0°
MIN · 01:00
222426283028° · 1¢29° · 3¢30° · 12¢31° · 37¢≤25° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 25.0°DAY MAX 24.0° · 01:00NOW 02:17000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 25.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 02:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 02:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
30°C
12¢71%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 12¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
⚡EDGE +59
32°C
39¢2%
MKT
MDL
50¢ → 38¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $135 · THIN
⚡EDGE -36
31°C
37¢24%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 37¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $129 · THIN
WATCH -13
33°C
11¢0%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
WATCH -10
34°C
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $29 · THIN
FAIR -3
29°C
3¢4%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
FAIR +1
28°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
27°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
≤25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 104¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RCSS
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
TUE 08
30°C · 65%
p10-90 29.3-30.9°C
MKT 42¢ · $1.2K
Model track record · TaipeiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
7%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
3 of 42 days
1.11
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
26°C @ 33% → 25.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 25°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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