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Taipei

4 live events
Highest temperature in Taipei on October 15? $8.2K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RCSSPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 7-15 · IN 6H01:11 LOCAL · 2026-10-15
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 01:00
E 4.6 m/s
WIND
89% RH
DEW POINT 22°
SUN DOWN
RISES 05:51
DRY
PRECIP 11% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 63D
P10 25°MEAN 29° · TODAY 23.9°P90 33°
LAST OBS 12 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RCSS resolution station · next METAR ~01:30 · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
23.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:00
23.9°
MIN · 00:00
222426283027° · 10¢28° · 39¢29° · 36¢30° · 13¢≤26° · 1¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 30.0°DAY MAX 23.9° · 00:00NOW 01:11000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 30.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.7°AT 01:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 01:11 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
29°C
36¢24%
MKT
MDL
39¢ → 35¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $764 · THIN
WATCH -12
28°C
39¢45%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 38¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $216 · THIN
WATCH +7
≤26°C
1¢4%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR +3
31°C
2¢4%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $17 · THIN
FAIR +2
30°C
13¢14%
MKT
MDL
17¢ → 13¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $56 · THIN
FAIR +1
27°C
10¢10%
MKT
MDL
9¢ → 10¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $21 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 99¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RCSS
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 16
32°C · 45%
p10-90 31.0-33.1°C
MKT 39¢ · $955
Model track record · TaipeiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-15
23%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
7 of 30 days
1.07
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
28°C @ 57% → 30.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 30°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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