WeatherSingapore
Singapore Temperature Markets on Polymarket
2 live eventsHighest temperature in Singapore on October 13? $23.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: WSSSPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 8-16 · IN 1H07:16 LOCAL · 2026-10-13
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 07:00
VRB 0.5 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:53
SHOWERS 98% BY 07:00
PRECIP 98% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 28°CON PACE · 28°C LIVE
+2.2°/h
RATE
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.3°
TO 27.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 30°MEAN 32° · TODAY 27.2°P90 33°
LAST OBS 67 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
WSSS resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
27.2°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 06:00
26.1°
MIN · 05:30
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.8°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.7°AT 07:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 07:16 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤26°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤26°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
27°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢6%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH +6
28°C
0¢16%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
⚡EDGE +15
29°C
0¢37%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
⚡EDGE +37
30°C
1¢28%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
⚡EDGE +27
31°C
13¢8%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
FAIR -5
32°C
48¢6%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 47¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $895 · THIN
⚡EDGE -42
33°C
36¢0%
MKT
MDL
49¢ → 35¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $27 · THIN
⚡EDGE -35
Σ market 97¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: WSSS
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · SingaporeScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-04
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 39D
5 of 39 days
1.15
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
30°C @ 35% → 32.8°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 33°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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