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Singapore

2 live events
Highest temperature in Singapore on October 22? $14.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: WSSSPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 8-16 · IN 1H07:43 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 07:30
N 1.5 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:51
SHOWERS 100% BY 12:00
PRECIP 100% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 29°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 28°C
+0.0°/h
RATE
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.7°
TO 28.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 30°MEAN 32° · TODAY 27.8°P90 33°
LAST OBS 105 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
WSSS resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
27.8°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:30
27.2°
MIN · 02:00
2628303229° · 0¢30° · 1¢31° · 1¢32° · 32¢33° · 58¢≤28° · 1¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 32.2°DAY MAX 27.8° · 00:30NOW 07:43000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 07:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 07:43 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
33°C
58¢4%
MKT
MDL
64¢ → 58¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $620 · THIN
⚡EDGE -54
31°C
1¢39%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
⚡EDGE +39
30°C
1¢16%
MKT
MDL
0¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH +15
32°C
32¢39%
MKT
MDL
22¢ → 32¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $289 · THIN
WATCH +7
34°C
8¢2%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
WATCH -6
≤28°C▲ DAY MAX
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
29°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: WSSS
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
32°C · 45%
p10-90 29.7-32.3°C
MKT 56¢ · $3.6K
Model track record · SingaporeScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-09
14%
LEADER HIT RATE · 43D
6 of 43 days
1.06
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
31°C @ 43% → 32.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 32°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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