WeatherShenzhen
Shenzhen Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Shenzhen on October 15? $14.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZGSZPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 7-16 · IN 7H00:10 LOCAL · 2026-10-15
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 00:00
ESE 5.1 m/s
WIND
70% RH
DEW POINT 21°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:21
DRY
PRECIP 14% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 26°MEAN 30°P90 33°
LAST OBS 11 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZGSZ resolution station · next METAR ~00:30 · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
-
RUNNING MAX
-
MIN
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 32.8°)Running day max
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 00:10 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
FAIR 0
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
27°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
28°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
29°C
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $21 · THIN
FAIR -3
30°C
32¢2%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 31¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $176 · THIN
⚡EDGE -29
31°C
46¢39%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 46¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $154 · THIN
WATCH -6
32°C
14¢55%
MKT
MDL
17¢ → 14¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $43 · THIN
⚡EDGE +41
33°C
2¢4%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $20 · THIN
FAIR +2
Σ market 96¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZGSZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ShenzhenScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-15
23%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
7 of 30 days
0.89
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
32°C @ 82% → 32.8°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 33°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
Smart money is a Pro feature
Whale flows in every bucket, farmer-filtered, from 1.07B indexed trades.
Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
GET /api/public/v1/weather/city/shenzhen→ same feed this page reads