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WeatherShenzhen
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Shenzhen

6 live events
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 6? $88.5K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZGSZPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 28°C @ 100¢22:05 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 21:00
SSW 2.1 m/s
WIND
89% RH
DEW POINT 25°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:37
DRY
PRECIP 4% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 29°MEAN 32° · TODAY 31.0°P90 34°
DATA STALE · OBS 8H 37M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZGSZ resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
31.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 15:00
24.0°
MIN · 08:00
2426283028° · 100¢30° · 0¢31° · 0¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 31.0°DAY MAX 31.0° · 15:00NOW 22:05000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 31.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 22:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 22:05 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
31°C
0¢100%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
28°CELIM
100¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.6K
≤27°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
22¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
30°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
19¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZGSZ
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07
31°C · 43%
p10-90 30.0-32.1°C
MKT 44¢ · $7.3K
TUE 08
33°C · 67%
p10-90 31.8-33.1°C
MKT 35¢ · $566
Model track record · ShenzhenScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
12%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
5 of 41 days
1.10
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
30°C @ 69% → 31.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 31°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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