WeatherShanghai
Shanghai Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Shanghai on October 22? $36.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZSPDPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 22°C @ 99¢20:05 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:30
NE 6.2 m/s
WIND
60% RH
DEW POINT 12°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:14
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 20°MEAN 25° · TODAY 16.1°P90 29°
LAST OBS 35 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZSPD resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~00:40 · all temps °C
16.1°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
16.1°
MIN · 01:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 21.1°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.1°AT 20:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 20:05 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤16°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
17°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
18°C
0¢1%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
19°C
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
20°C
0¢60%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
21°C
0¢37%
MKT
MDL
46¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
22°C
99¢0%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 99¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $993 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZSPD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ShanghaiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
27%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
8 of 30 days
0.96
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
21°C @ 80% → 21.1°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 21°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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