WeatherShanghai
Shanghai Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 7? $81.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZSPDPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 30°C @ 100¢17:53 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 17:30
NNE 8.7 m/s
WIND
70% RH
DEW POINT 21°
- · 126 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:09
SHOWERS 39% BY 17:00
PRECIP 39% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 27°MEAN 30° · TODAY 30.0°P90 34°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 45M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZSPD resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~18:40 · all temps °C
30.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:00
24.0°
MIN · 06:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 30.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 17:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 17:53 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤29°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
30°C
100¢100%
MKT
MDL
64¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3.0K
31°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
22¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
32°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
33°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
≥34°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $15 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZSPD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · ShanghaiScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-08
23%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
7 of 30 days
1.14
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
29°C @ 69% → 30.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 30°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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