WeatherSeoul (Incheon)
Seoul (Incheon) Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 7? $12.9K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RKSIPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 9H03:17 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 03:00
NE 6.7 m/s
WIND
78% RH
DEW POINT 16°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:09
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 23°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 9H
+0.0°/h
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 22.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 24°MEAN 27° · TODAY 22.0°P90 31°
LAST OBS 18 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RKSI resolution station · next METAR ~03:30 · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
22.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:30
21.0°
MIN · 03:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 29.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 03:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 03:17 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤22°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
23°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
24°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
26°C
2¢10%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 1¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
WATCH +8
27°C
6¢86%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
⚡EDGE +81
28°C
56¢4%
MKT
MDL
54¢ → 56¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $349 · THIN
⚡EDGE -53
29°C
35¢0%
MKT
MDL
38¢ → 34¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $360 · THIN
⚡EDGE -34
30°C
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
WATCH -5
Σ market 104¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RKSI
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Seoul (Incheon)Scored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-08-08
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
11 of 30 days
0.95
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
28°C @ 73% → 29.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 29°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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