WeatherSeoul (Incheon)
Seoul (Incheon) Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 22? $24.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: RKSIPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-16 · IN 5H · NIGHT MAX 12%04:48 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 04:30
N 4.6 m/s
WIND
46% RH
DEW POINT -2°
SUN DOWN
RISES 06:48
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 11°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 5H
+0.0°/h
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 10.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 17°MEAN 20° · TODAY 10.0°P90 24°
LAST OBS 48 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
RKSI resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
10.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 02:30
8.9°
MIN · 03:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 17.2°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -8.3°AT 04:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 04:48 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤9°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤9°CELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
10°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR 0
11°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
12°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
13°C
4¢28%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $28 · THIN
⚡EDGE +24
14°C
51¢73%
MKT
MDL
58¢ → 51¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $302 · THIN
⚡EDGE +22
15°C
39¢0%
MKT
MDL
33¢ → 38¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $239 · THIN
⚡EDGE -38
16°C
5¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $27 · THIN
WATCH -5
17°C
3¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $17 · THIN
FAIR -3
Σ market 103¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: RKSI
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Seoul (Incheon)Scored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
30%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
9 of 30 days
0.96
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
16°C @ 76% → 17.2°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 17°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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