WeatherSeattle
Seattle Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Seattle on October 21? $18.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KSEAPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-19 · 7H 11M LEFT11:49 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:16
N 2.1 m/s
WIND
83% RH
DEW POINT 8°
SCT · 344 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:09
DRY
PRECIP 1% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 50°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 49°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 49.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 52°MEAN 60° · TODAY 49.0°P90 69°
DATA STALE · OBS 12H 52M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KSEA resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~15:40 · all temps °F
49°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:53
43°
MIN · 07:53
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 62°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.0°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:49 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤53°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
FAIR 0
54-55°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
FAIR 0
56-57°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
58-59°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
60-61°F
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR -4
62-63°F
23¢26%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 23¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $13 · THIN
FAIR +3
64-65°F
44¢73%
MKT
MDL
47¢ → 44¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $33 · THIN
⚡EDGE +29
66-67°F
21¢2%
MKT
MDL
31¢ → 20¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $21 · THIN
⚡EDGE -18
68-69°F
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
5¢ → 6¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
WATCH -6
Σ market 98¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KSEA
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · SeattleScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
33%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
10 of 30 days
0.99
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
60-61°F @ 57% → 62°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 62-63°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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