WeatherSao Paulo
Sao Paulo Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 22? $6.4K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: SBGRPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · IN 8H02:04 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 02:00
SW 1.0 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 16°
SUN DOWN
RISES 05:27
PRECIP NOW · -RA
PRECIP 86% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 19°MEAN 26°P90 33°
LAST OBS 82 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
SBGR resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~07:40 · all temps °C
-
RUNNING MAX
-
MIN
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 23.9°)Running day max
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 02:04 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤18°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
19°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR -1
20°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR -1
21°C
10¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH -9
22°C
23¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $22 · THIN
⚡EDGE -23
23°C
36¢2%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 35¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $137 · THIN
⚡EDGE -33
24°C
22¢10%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $47 · THIN
WATCH -12
25°C
9¢37%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 9¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
⚡EDGE +29
26°C
2¢43%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 2¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
⚡EDGE +41
27°C
1¢8%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
WATCH +7
Σ market 104¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: SBGR
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · Sao PauloScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
33%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
10 of 30 days
0.85
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
24°C @ 51% → 23.9°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 24°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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