WeatherSao Paulo
Sao Paulo Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 6? $61.7K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: SBGRPolymarket|Resolution source
SETTLED · 15°C @ 100¢19:38 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 19:00
ESE 2.1 m/s
WIND
88% RH
DEW POINT 10°
SUN DOWN
SET 17:56
SHOWERS 98% BY 19:00
PRECIP 98% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 21°MEAN 28° · TODAY 15.0°P90 33°
LAST OBS 107 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
SBGR resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
15.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 02:00
12.0°
MIN · 18:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 20.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -5.0°AT 19:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 19:38 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤14°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
15°C
100¢55%
MKT
MDL
55¢ → 100¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3.6K
16°C
0¢43%
MKT
MDL
35¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $16 · THIN
17°C
0¢2%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $9 · THIN
18°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
19°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
After settlement the ladder retires: no EDGE / WATCH noise, one quiet check on the winning bucket.EDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: SBGR
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
MON 07
14°C · 53%
p10-90 12.7-14.4°C
MKT 38¢ · $18.1K
TUE 08WIDE SPREAD
20°C · 31%
p10-90 18.2-21.9°C
MKT 27¢ · $720
Model track record · Sao PauloScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
37%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
15 of 41 days
0.84
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
25°C @ 37% → 20.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 20°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
Smart money in this marketPRO80K resolved temp markets
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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