WeatherSao Paulo
Sao Paulo Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 14? $89.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: SBGRPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · 1H 38M LEFT14:22 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 14:00
WNW 4.1 m/s
WIND
46% RH
DEW POINT 17°
BKN · 844 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:10
SHOWERS 82% BY 14:00
PRECIP 82% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 30°CUNDER PACE · FAVORS 29°C
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.4°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.6°
TO 29.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY WITHIN NORMAL BAND
P10 19°MEAN 26° · TODAY 28.9°P90 33°
LAST OBS 22 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
SBGR resolution station · next METAR ~14:30 · next ENS pull ~19:40 · all temps °C
28.9°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 13:00
18.9°
MIN · 02:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 25.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +5.0°AT 14:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 14:22 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤28°CELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
29°C▲ DAY MAX
0¢75%
MKT
MDL
28¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
⚡EDGE +75model over market
30°C
94¢21%
MKT
MDL
6¢ → 94¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $180 · THIN
⚡EDGE -73
≥31°C
7¢4%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 7¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $25 · THIN
FAIR -2
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: SBGR
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15WIDE SPREAD
26°C · 22%
p10-90 23.3-27.5°C
MKT 34¢ · $12.1K
FRI 16
26°C · 31%
p10-90 23.3-26.5°C
MKT 28¢ · $1.1K
Model track record · Sao PauloScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
23%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
7 of 30 days
0.90
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
29°C @ 35% → 25.0°C✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 25°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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