WeatherSan Francisco
San Francisco Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 6? $24.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KSFOPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · 2H 25M LEFT13:35 LOCAL · 2026-09-06
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 13:00
W 6.7 m/s
WIND
51% RH
DEW POINT 11°
FEW · 884 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 19:31
DRY
PRECIP 2% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 69°FUNDER PACE · FAVORS 68°F
+0.0°/h ↓
RATE · SLOWING
+0.2°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 68.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 67°MEAN 72° · TODAY 68.0°P90 77°
LAST OBS 101 MIN AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KSFO resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~15:40 · all temps °F
68°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 11:56
61°
MIN · 07:56
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 73°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -5.4°AT 13:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 13:35 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤67°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤67°FELIM
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
68-69°F▲ DAY MAX
0¢21%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $12 · THIN
⚡EDGE +21model over market
70-71°F
79¢35%
MKT
MDL
50¢ → 79¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $141 · THIN
⚡EDGE -44
72-73°F
21¢44%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 21¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
⚡EDGE +23
74-75°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
76-77°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KSFO
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · San FranciscoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
10%
LEADER HIT RATE · 41D
4 of 41 days
1.18
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
74-75°F @ 55% → 73°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 72-73°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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