WeatherSan Francisco
San Francisco Temperature Markets on Polymarket
6 live eventsHighest temperature in San Francisco on October 21? $21.1K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KSFOPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · PASSED18:04 LOCAL · 2026-10-21
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 18:00
NNE 1.5 m/s
WIND
70% RH
DEW POINT 13°
FEW · 43 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 18:23
DRY
PRECIP 18% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 65°FPEAK PASSED · 64°F HOLDS
+0.0°/h
RATE
-
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 64.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93DTODAY BELOW P10 · RARE COLD
P10 65°MEAN 73° · TODAY 64.0°P90 87°
DATA STALE · OBS 3H 31M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KSFO resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~21:40 · all temps °F
64°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 05:56
62°
MIN · 07:56
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 67°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -1.0°AT 18:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 18:04 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤63°FELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
≤63°FELIM
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
64-65°F▲ DAY MAX
94¢31%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 94¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $564 · THIN
⚡EDGE -63market rich
66-67°F
6¢47%
MKT
MDL
36¢ → 5¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
⚡EDGE +42
68-69°F
1¢18%
MKT
MDL
34¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
⚡EDGE +17
70-71°F
0¢4%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $0 · THIN
FAIR +4
72-73°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
3¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 101¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KSFO
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · San FranciscoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-21
13%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
4 of 30 days
1.18
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
68-69°F @ 51% → 67°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 66-67°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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