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WeatherSan Francisco
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San Francisco

6 live events
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 14? $16.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: KSFOPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 10-16 · IN 3H07:52 LOCAL · 2026-10-14
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 07:00
N 0.0 m/s
WIND
66% RH
DEW POINT 6°
SUN DOWN
SET 18:33
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 59°FWARMUP · PEAK IN 3H
+1.0°/h
RATE · PRE-PEAK WARMING
+0.1°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 58.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 65°MEAN 73° · TODAY 58.0°P90 87°
DATA STALE · OBS 2H 47M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
KSFO resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~09:40 · all temps °F
58°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 00:56
52°
MIN · 05:56
5256606468727666-67° · 1¢68-69° · 2¢70-71° · 4¢72-73° · 19¢74-75° · 42¢76-77° · 27¢78-79° · 4¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 74°DAY MAX 58° · 00:56NOW 07:52000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 74°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +0.0°AT 07:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 07:52 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
76-77°F
27¢61%
MKT
MDL
14¢ → 27¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $18 · THIN
⚡EDGE +34
72-73°F
19¢0%
MKT
MDL
32¢ → 19¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $34 · THIN
⚡EDGE -19
74-75°F
42¢31%
MKT
MDL
40¢ → 42¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $107 · THIN
WATCH -11
70-71°F
4¢0%
MKT
MDL
8¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $10 · THIN
FAIR -4
78-79°F
4¢8%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 4¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR +4
68-69°F
2¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR -2
66-67°F
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
64-65°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $6 · THIN
FAIR 0
≤63°F
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 99¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: KSFO
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets2 live events · early edge where spread is wide
THU 15
82°F · 49%
p10-90 80-84°F
MKT 36¢ · $4.3K
FRI 16
86°F · 47%
p10-90 85-88°F
MKT 34¢ · $0
Model track record · San FranciscoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-14
10%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
3 of 30 days
1.22
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
72-73°F @ 65% → 74°F✗ MISS
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 74-75°F
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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