WeatherQingdao
Qingdao Temperature Markets on Polymarket
4 live eventsHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 7? $5.8K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZSQDPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 12-16 · IN 8H04:12 LOCAL · 2026-09-07
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 04:00
N 2.1 m/s
WIND
94% RH
DEW POINT 19°
SUN DOWN
RISES 05:35
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
PACE TO NEXT BUCKET · 22°CWARMUP · PEAK IN 8H
-1.0°/h ↓
RATE · OVERNIGHT DRIFT
+0.0°/h
NEEDED BY 16:00
Δ 0.5°
TO 21.5° BOUND
3-YEAR CLIMATE · SEPTEMBER · 90D
P10 24°MEAN 28° · TODAY 21.0°P90 32°
DATA STALE · OBS 7H 56M AGOAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZSQD resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~06:40 · all temps °C
21.0°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 02:00
20.0°
MIN · 03:00
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 30.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · +1.0°AT 04:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 04:12 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
≤24°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
25°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
26°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $2 · THIN
FAIR 0
27°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR 0
28°C
3¢2%
MKT
MDL
2¢ → 3¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR 0
29°C
5¢14%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
WATCH +9
30°C
43¢59%
MKT
MDL
41¢ → 43¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $1.1K
⚡EDGE +16
31°C
44¢26%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $358 · THIN
⚡EDGE -18
32°C
8¢0%
MKT
MDL
12¢ → 8¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $8 · THIN
WATCH -7
Σ market 102¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZSQD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iterationNext days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
Model track record · QingdaoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-07-27
41%
LEADER HIT RATE · 42D
17 of 42 days
0.82
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
30°C @ 47% → 30.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 30°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Upgrade to ProWeather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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