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Qingdao

4 live events
Highest temperature in Qingdao on October 22? $5.3K vol · resolves 23:59 local · source: ZSQDPolymarket|Resolution source
PEAK 9-15 · 3H 3M LEFT11:57 LOCAL · 2026-10-22
CONDITIONS · METAR + ECMWF · UPDATED 11:00
VRB 2.1 m/s
WIND
34% RH
DEW POINT 0°
- · 639 W/m²
CLOUD · SOLAR · SETS 17:15
DRY
PRECIP 0% TODAY
3-YEAR CLIMATE · OCTOBER · 93D
P10 16°MEAN 21° · TODAY 7.2°P90 26°
LAST OBS 86 MIN AGO · METARAUTO-REFRESH 30S
Today: hourly observations vs ensemble
ZSQD resolution station · METAR DUE NOW · next ENS pull ~12:40 · all temps °C
7.2°
RUNNING MAX · SINCE 01:00
7.2°
MIN · 01:00
8101214161815° · 1¢16° · 6¢17° · 44¢18° · 49¢RESOLVES 23:59 LOCALp90p10YDA MAX 15.0°DAY MAX 7.2° · 01:00NOW 11:57000306091215182124
Station obsForecast p50ECMWF p10-90 · 51 membersYesterday (final 15.0°)Running day maxΔ VS YESTERDAY · -7.8°AT 11:00
Bucket scale: model vs marketPROCLOB 11:57 · ECMWF ensemble · edge ≥ 15 pts
17°C
44¢90%
MKT
MDL
39¢ → 44¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $14 · THIN
⚡EDGE +46
18°C
49¢10%
MKT
MDL
48¢ → 49¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $11 · THIN
⚡EDGE -39
19°C
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
7¢ → 6¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
WATCH -6
16°C
6¢0%
MKT
MDL
4¢ → 6¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
WATCH -6
15°C
1¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $1 · THIN
FAIR -1
≤11°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
1¢ → 0¢ TODAY
±1¢ DEPTH $7 · THIN
FAIR 0
14°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $4 · THIN
FAIR 0
13°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $5 · THIN
FAIR 0
12°C
0¢0%
MKT
MDL
±1¢ DEPTH $3 · THIN
FAIR 0
Σ market 106¢ · ECMWF 51 members · sparkline = bucket price today · preview bucket ruleEDGE = model − market (+ model sees more · − market rich) · highlight ≥ 15 pts
Station map1 sensors · refresh 10m
Resolution station: ZSQD
Nearby sensors: PWS network
~2 KM
Live sensors: MapLibre GL · OpenFreeMap dark tiles ship next iteration
Next days: ensemble spread & early markets1 live events · early edge where spread is wide
FRI 23
19°C · 57%
p10-90 18.5-19.7°C
MKT 52¢ · $300
Model track record · QingdaoScored daily · morning run vs resolution extract · since 2026-09-22
57%
LEADER HIT RATE · 30D
17 of 30 days
0.56
BRIER SCORE · MODEL
lower is better · 0 = clairvoyant
15°C @ 90% → 15.0°C✓ HIT
YESTERDAY · FORECAST VS FACT
actual bucket 15°C
LAST 14 DAYS · LEADER BUCKET HIT
We publish the scorecard because a forecast you cannot audit is just marketing. Bias calibration lands after 2-3 weeks of history; these are raw-model numbers.
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Weather data: METAR · Weather Underground · Open-Meteo ECMWF ensemble. Prices: Polymarket. Model probabilities use a preview bucket rule pending full verification on resolved markets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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